Zhu et al. (2026) Integrated Analysis and Prediction of Drought in the Endorheic Basins of China

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-29
• Authors: Weiru Zhu, Kang Liang
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70368

Research Groups

Not available in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study systematically analyzes historical (1960–2024) and future (2025–2100) drought trends and characteristics, including compound and extreme events, across the diverse Endorheic Basins of China, revealing a pronounced drying trend influenced by radiative forcing and oceanic teleconnections.

Objective

• To systematically analyze trends of wetting and drying and subregional compound droughts at non-event scales, as well as the characteristics of drought and extreme drought events at event scales, within the Endorheic Basins of China (EBC) for historical (1960–2024) and future (2025–2100) periods.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Endorheic Basins of China (EBC), covering 39% of the national territory, including Northwest China, the northern Tibetan Plateau, and the central-eastern Inner Mongolia Plateau. Six subregions were identified within the EBC.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1960–2024) and future period (2025–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) for future projections.
• Data sources: China Meteorological Forcing Data (for the historical period); CMIP6 (for the future period). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used for drought analysis and subregional identification.

Main Results

• Six subregions were identified based on SPEI, with dry-wet divisions primarily governed by topography, and boundaries progressively shifting in response to enhanced radiative forcing.
• The study area exhibits a pronounced drying trend that intensifies with increasing radiative forcing; relatively low-altitude areas remain persistently arid, while high-altitude mountainous areas tend to become relatively wetter.
• The frequency and intensity of regional compound droughts are projected to weaken in the future, but the risk of severe compound droughts remains higher than historical levels in most scenarios.
• With increasing radiative forcing, droughts and extreme events occur less frequently, last longer, and show stronger spatial differentiation.
• Atlantic, tropical Pacific, and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, together with elevation, jointly regulate the spatiotemporal patterns of drought.

Contributions

• Provides a systematic and comprehensive analysis of drought trends and characteristics across the entire Endorheic Basins of China, moving beyond studies focused solely on Northwest China, and including smaller zones and diverse hydroclimatic conditions.
• Investigates compound and extreme droughts at both non-event and event scales, offering a more nuanced understanding of drought dynamics.
• Integrates historical observations (1960–2024) with future projections (2025–2100) using China Meteorological Forcing Data and CMIP6, providing insights into long-term drought evolution.
• Identifies and characterizes six distinct subregions within the EBC and analyzes the influence of topography, radiative forcing, and oceanic teleconnections (SST anomalies) on drought patterns.

Funding

Not available in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Zhu2026Integrated,
  author = {Zhu, Weiru and Liang, Kang},
  title = {Integrated Analysis and Prediction of Drought in the Endorheic Basins of China},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70368},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70368}
}