Morakinyo et al. (2026) Multi‐Country‐Multi‐City Characterisation of Heat Stress and Exposure in Africa

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-21
• Authors: Tobi Eniolu Morakinyo, Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri, Mojolaoluwa Toluwalase Daramola, Bobde Vishal, Kazeem A. Ishola, Oluwafemi Benjamin Obe, Emmanuel Olaoluwa Eresanya, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, Charles Onyutha, Brian Odhiambo Ayugi, Patricia Nying'uro
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70385

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study provides the first continent-wide assessment of summer heat stress in Africa from 1974 to 2023, revealing a significant increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events.

Objective

• To analyze long-term trends in summer heat stress across Africa using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) across multiple spatial (continental to city) and temporal (hourly to decadal) scales.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental (Africa), regional (e.g., Sahel), and city scale (e.g., Cairo, Lagos, Kano).
• Temporal Scale: 1974–2023 (long-term), with analysis ranging from hourly to decadal resolutions.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI).
• Data sources: ERA5-HEAT reanalysis datasets.

Main Results

• Annual UTCI anomalies range between 0.2 °C and 1.6 °C.
• Marked increase in the frequency, duration, and spatial extent of 'very strong' (38 °C–46 °C) and 'extreme' (≥ 46 °C) heat stress, particularly in the Sahel region.
• Heat-stressed hours (UTCI > 32 °C) increased by 2% to 25% across most countries.
• Extreme heat events doubled in frequency for episodes lasting 3–5 days and 6–8 days.
• Escalating heat risks identified in major urban centers, including Cairo, Lagos, and Kano.

Contributions

• Establishes the first comprehensive, continent-wide long-term assessment of heat stress in Africa, providing a critical baseline for the development of targeted heat-health adaptation strategies and early warning systems.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Morakinyo2026MultiCountryMultiCity,
  author = {Morakinyo, Tobi Eniolu and Adeyeri, Oluwafemi E. and Daramola, Mojolaoluwa Toluwalase and Vishal, Bobde and Ishola, Kazeem A. and Obe, Oluwafemi Benjamin and Eresanya, Emmanuel Olaoluwa and Akinsanola, Akintomide A. and Onyutha, Charles and Ayugi, Brian Odhiambo and Nying'uro, Patricia},
  title = {Multi‐Country‐Multi‐City Characterisation of Heat Stress and Exposure in Africa},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70385},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70385}
}