Yang et al. (2026) Projection and Uncertainty of Midsummer Precipitation in the Northern China Monsoon Region by CMIP6 Models

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-02
• Authors: Liu Yang, Junhu Zhao, Yuantao Hu, Guolin FENG
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70438

Research Groups

• Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS)
• National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (NCC/CMA)

Short Summary

This study investigates the sources of uncertainty in model projections of mid-summer precipitation trends over northern China's monsoon region using 30 CMIP6 global climate models and observational data. The results show that dynamic terms dominate the increase in precipitation, while thermodynamic terms contribute negatively.

Objective

• Investigate the sources of uncertainty in model projections from both thermodynamic and dynamic perspectives

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northern China monsoon region (NCMR)
• Temporal Scale: 1961–2020 for observational data and 2021–2100 for projection analysis

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 global climate models (30 models)
• Data sources: Observational data from 2374 meteorological stations in China, CMIP6 model outputs

Main Results

• Mid-summer precipitation trend is projected to increase in the near-term (2021–2040) and mid-term (2041–2060), but slow down in the long-term (2081–2100)
• Mean increasing trend of 3% (5%) under different scenarios in the near-term (mid-term) and slightly decreases to 2% in the long-term
• Dynamic term dominates the increase in NCMR midsummer precipitation, while thermodynamic term contributes negatively

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the sources of uncertainty in model projections of mid-summer precipitation trends over northern China's monsoon region
• The results highlight the importance of dynamic terms in contributing to discrepancies among different models

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) grant number: 41975048
• Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Key Research Program grant number: XDA20060403

Citation

@article{Yang2026Projection,
  author = {Yang, Liu and Zhao, Junhu and Hu, Yuantao and FENG, Guolin},
  title = {Projection and Uncertainty of Midsummer Precipitation in the Northern China Monsoon Region by CMIP6 Models},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70438},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70438}
}