Salehnia et al. (2026) Projections of Meteorological Drought and Potential Evapotranspiration Using the RegCM4 Over Northeastern Iran

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-14
• Authors: Nasrin Salehnia, Peter T. Wolter, Sylvester Richard Chikabvumbwa, Fateme Hosseini, Sohrab Kolsoumi, A Khazaee Farid, Hashem Zahedipour
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70442

Research Groups

• Department of Water Resources Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
• Climate Change Research Center, University of Tehran

Short Summary

This study projects future meteorological drought and potential evapotranspiration (PET) for northeastern Iran using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4.4.5.10 driven by CanESM2 under the RCP4.5 scenario. The results indicate an intensification from predominantly moderate–severe drought to severe–extreme drought conditions by the late century.

Objective

• Investigate future changes in meteorological drought and PET for northeastern Iran

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, focusing on northeastern Iran (Great Khorasan)
• Temporal Scale: Baseline period (1990–2009) and two projection windows (2040–2059 and 2080–2099)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: RegCM4.4.5.10 driven by CanESM2 under the RCP4.5 scenario (CMIP5)
• Data sources: Station observations, SPEI, PET estimated using Hargreaves–Samani method

Main Results

• Temperatures increase across all stations, with late-century warming in some locations exceeding +3°C.
• PET increases consistently, rising by an average of +0.35 mm day−1 in 2040–2059 and reaching up to +0.7 mm day−1 in some stations (e.g., Mashhad) by 2080–2099.
• Regional SPEI shifts toward drier conditions, indicating an intensification from predominantly moderate–severe drought to severe–extreme drought conditions by the late century.

Contributions

This study provides regionally tailored projections of future meteorological drought and PET for northeastern Iran, supporting proactive drought-risk management in the region. The results highlight the escalating risks for water resources and agriculture due to increasing evaporative demand and growing water stress.

Funding

• This research was funded by the Iranian Ministry of Science, Research and Technology (Grant No. 980/2017)

Citation

@article{Salehnia2026Projections,
  author = {Salehnia, Nasrin and Wolter, Peter T. and Chikabvumbwa, Sylvester Richard and Hosseini, Fateme and Kolsoumi, Sohrab and Farid, A Khazaee and Zahedipour, Hashem},
  title = {Projections of Meteorological Drought and Potential Evapotranspiration Using the RegCM4 Over Northeastern Iran},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70442},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70442}
}