Thota et al. (2026) Evolution of Climate Extremes Over the Indian Subcontinent Using a Revised CEI

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-16
• Authors: Mohan Thota, M RAJEEVAN, Smrutishree Lenka, Kondapalli Niranjan Kumar, P. Rohini, O. P. Sreejith
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70467

Research Groups

• Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)
• National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)

Short Summary

This study develops a revised India Climate Extremes Index (IndCEI) to assess long-term climate extremes across the country, revealing widespread warming signals and intensifying heat stress.

Objective

• Investigate long-term variability in climate extremes across India using observed gridded daily rainfall and temperature datasets.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale, with regional analysis of four homogeneous regions: Northwestern India (NWI), South Peninsular India (SPI), Northeast India (NEI), and East-Central India (ECI).
• Temporal Scale: 1971–2022

Methodology and Data

• Models used: None mentioned; observed gridded daily rainfall and temperature datasets.
• Data sources: Observed gridded daily rainfall and temperature datasets from 1971 to 2022.

Main Results

• Robust and widespread warming signals over India, with significant increases in T max extremes across all four regions.
• Northwestern India (NWI) emerges as the principal hotspot, exhibiting strong positive trends in T max , HI, and EHF—indicative of intensifying heat stress and more frequent heatwaves.
• South Peninsular India (SPI) shows marked increases in drought-related extremes (SPEI, CDD).
• Northeast India (NEI) displays heightened short-duration heavy rainfall events alongside increasing drought episodes.

Contributions

• The revised IndCEI framework integrates seven indicators particularly relevant to the Indian climate system, providing a more comprehensive assessment of climate extremes.
• The study highlights pronounced regional contrasts in climate stressors across India, underscoring the need for region-specific adaptation strategies.

Funding

• This research was supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India.

Citation

@article{Thota2026Evolution,
  author = {Thota, Mohan and RAJEEVAN, M and Lenka, Smrutishree and Kumar, Kondapalli Niranjan and Rohini, P. and Sreejith, O. P.},
  title = {Evolution of Climate Extremes Over the Indian Subcontinent Using a Revised CEI},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70467},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70467}
}