Gebremariam et al. (2026) Warming Trends in Basin‐Scale Heatwaves Across Ethiopia: An Observational Analysis Using Crossing Theory

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-14
• Authors: Mulugeta Aregay Gebremariam, U. Jaya Prakash Raju, Abebe Kebede
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70477

Research Groups

• Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (ENMA)
• Addis Ababa University's Department of Geography and Environmental Studies
• International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Africa Regional Office

Short Summary

This study investigates the intensification of heatwaves across Ethiopia's major river basins from 1987 to 2024, revealing a significant increase in heatwave frequency and severity. The findings highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient infrastructure and agricultural practices in Ethiopia.

Objective

• Investigate the trends and drivers of heatwave intensification in Ethiopia's major river basins

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Basin-scale analysis of daily maximum temperature data across Ethiopia's major river basins (Awash, Wabi Shebelle, etc.)
• Temporal Scale: 1987 to 2024, with a focus on the October–January dry season

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Crossing theory for heatwave analysis
• Data sources: Daily maximum temperature data from ENMA's climate archives

Main Results

• Heatwave frequency has increased by 150% since the 1990s, with lowland basins facing near-permanent heatwave conditions.
• Urbanization exacerbates heatwaves by 40%, primarily through nocturnal warming.
• Highland areas warm at a rate of 0.3°C per decade.

Contributions

This study introduces an innovative framework for establishing elevation-adjusted thresholds and enhances early-warning systems for heat-related impacts, providing critical insights into the intersection of climate change and societal vulnerability in tropical highland regions.

Funding

• This research was funded by the Ethiopian Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Electricity (MoWIE) project "Climate Resilient Water Resources Management" (CRWRM)
• Additional support provided by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) through the "Climate Change Adaptation in Africa" program

Citation

@article{Gebremariam2026Warming,
  author = {Gebremariam, Mulugeta Aregay and Raju, U. Jaya Prakash and Kebede, Abebe},
  title = {Warming Trends in Basin‐Scale Heatwaves Across Ethiopia: An Observational Analysis Using Crossing Theory},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70477},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70477}
}