Wang et al. (2026) Causal Inference of Cascading Effects and Their Driving Factors Among Multiple Drought Types in the Yangtze River Basin

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-29
• Authors: Caiyuan Wang, Peng Yang, Jun Xia, Heqing Huang, Xiang Zhang, Lu Chen, Kaiya Sun, Xixi Lu
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70483

Research Groups

• Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Sichuan University
• Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
• Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Yangtze River Basin

Short Summary

This study develops a causal inference framework to quantify drought cascades in the Yangtze River Basin, revealing previously overlooked feedback loops and identifying precipitation and vapour pressure deficit as key drivers.

Objective

• Investigate the propagation pathways and feedback mechanisms of droughts in the Yangtze River Basin using convergent cross mapping (CCM), propensity score matching (PSM) and logistic regression.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Yangtze River Basin, a major river basin in China.
• Temporal Scale: The analysis spans multiple years of drought events, with a focus on understanding the dynamics of drought cascades over various timescales.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Convergent cross mapping (CCM), propensity score matching (PSM) and logistic regression were employed to establish a causal inference framework.
• Data sources: Satellite data, observation records, and reanalysis products were utilized to quantify drought indices, meteorological variables, and agricultural indicators.

Main Results

• The study reveals significant feedback loops between agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological droughts in the Yangtze River Basin, with 63% of drought cascades exhibiting a 0-month lag.
• Precipitation was identified as the primary mitigating driver of drought cascades, reducing risk by up to 0.18 times per unit increase.
• Vapour pressure deficit was found to amplify drought cascade risk by more than 3.0 times per unit increase.

Contributions

• This research provides a novel perspective on bidirectional coupling between hydro-meteorological extremes in the Yangtze River Basin, offering insights into nuanced drought risk management strategies.
• The study's findings highlight the importance of considering feedback mechanisms and precipitation-vapour pressure deficit interactions when assessing drought cascades.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51879217)
• Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. QYZDY-SSW-DQC011)

Citation

@article{Wang2026Causal,
  author = {Wang, Caiyuan and Yang, Peng and Xia, Jun and Huang, Heqing and Zhang, Xiang and Chen, Lu and Sun, Kaiya and Lu, Xixi},
  title = {Causal Inference of Cascading Effects and Their Driving Factors Among Multiple Drought Types in the Yangtze River Basin},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70483},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70483}
}