Gul et al. (2026) Time Series Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Dynamics Using CETA and MCETA Methods

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-30
• Authors: Sajid Gul, Guo Mingyan, Xia Cui, Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu, Hamza Pi̇r, Gökmen Çeribaşı
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70484

Research Groups

• Department of Earth Sciences, University of Peshawar
• Pakistan Meteorological Department

Short Summary

This study evaluates hydro-climatic trends at various risk levels using the Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis (CETA) and Modified Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis (MCETA) methods on temperature and precipitation data from 11 meteorological stations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The results show that MCETA outperforms conventional trend analysis by offering a more comprehensive risk-oriented assessment of hydro-climatic trends.

Objective

• To evaluate the effectiveness of CETA and MCETA methods in identifying heterogeneous trend behaviors associated with differing risk levels

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan)
• Temporal Scale: Annual mean temperature and total precipitation data from 1980 to 2019

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CETA and MCETA methods
• Data sources: Meteorological station data from the Pakistan Meteorological Department

Main Results

• Temperature series exhibit increasing trends across most stations, particularly at median and higher risk levels.
• Precipitation trends display greater spatial variability, with several stations showing increasing trends at higher risk levels and decreasing trends at lower levels.

Contributions

• The study demonstrates that MCETA outperforms conventional trend analysis methods by offering a more comprehensive and distribution-sensitive assessment of hydro-climatic trends.
• The implementation of CETA and MCETA in conjunction highlights the importance of risk level-specific trend assessment in hydro-climatic analysis, climate variability interpretation, and climate risk evaluation.

Funding

• This research was funded by the Higher Education Commission (HEC) of Pakistan under project code 20-21/HRD/MNR.

Citation

@article{Gul2026Time,
  author = {Gul, Sajid and Mingyan, Guo and Cui, Xia and Ceyhunlu, Ahmet Iyad and Pi̇r, Hamza and Çeribaşı, Gökmen},
  title = {Time Series Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Dynamics Using CETA and MCETA Methods},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70484},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70484}
}