Thien et al. (2026) Distinct and Synergistic ENSO Modulation of Winter Extreme Rainfall Over Central Vietnam

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-28
• Authors: Le Van Thien, Phan Van Tan
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70487

Research Groups

• Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Hanoi
• Climate Change Research Institute, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology
• International Centre for Water Hazard Prevention (ICWHP)

Short Summary

This study investigates the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) in extreme precipitation events during the boreal winter in Central Vietnam. The findings reveal that ENSO has a stronger influence on rainfall extremes than EAWM.

Objective

• Investigate the individual and synergistic roles of ENSO and EAWM in driving winter extreme precipitation in Central Vietnam

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional, focusing on Central Vietnam (15°N–20°N, 102°E–109°E)
• Temporal Scale: Boreal winter (November–January; NDJ)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Linear regression-based framework to isolate the ENSO-independent monsoonal component (EAWMres)
• Data sources: Climate reanalysis data (e.g., ERA5) and observational datasets

Main Results

• Winter extreme precipitation exhibits robust, statistically significant negative correlations with both ENSO and total EAWM indices.
• Once the ENSO signal is removed, EAWMres shows no significant relationship with rainfall extremes.
• The ENSO-related monsoonal component displays stronger and more spatially coherent associations with rainfall extremes.

Contributions

• This study provides a physically consistent framework linking large-scale variability with regional topographic effects in Central Vietnam.
• The findings offer implications for seasonal predictability and climate risk management.

Funding

• This research was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant number NSF-VN-2020-0012.
• Additional support came from the Climate Change Research Institute, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology.

Citation

@article{Thien2026Distinct,
  author = {Thien, Le Van and Tan, Phan Van},
  title = {Distinct and Synergistic ENSO Modulation of Winter Extreme Rainfall Over Central Vietnam},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70487},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70487}
}