Zhu et al. (2026) Projection the Risk of Winter Extreme Cold Spells in China Based on Statistical Modelling Under Global Warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-06
• Authors: Lianhua Zhu, J Zhang, Yuanxin Zhang, Wei Li, Yi-Xiang Wang, Yingqi Zhu
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70503

Research Groups

• National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC), China
• Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP CAS)

Short Summary

This study uses a process-oriented approach to characterize extreme cold spells in China using observed data and CMIP6 model simulations. The results show that under future warming scenarios, the intensity, frequency, and duration of cold spells are expected to decrease.

Objective

• Investigate the characteristics of extreme cold spells in China from a process-oriented perspective.
• Evaluate the impact of future warming on the intensity, frequency, and duration of cold spells.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental scale (China)
• Temporal Scale: Daily minimum temperature data from 1995 to 2014, with projections up to 2100 under different warming scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 models (21 models)
• Data sources: Observed daily minimum temperature data from China (1995-2014), reanalysis datasets

Main Results

• The intensity of extreme cold spells decreases from north to south across China.
• Under future warming scenarios, the intensity, frequency, and duration of cold spells are expected to decrease.
• Bias correction simulation shows better performance compared to raw model simulations.

Contributions

• Developed a Cold Spell Model (CSM) based on extreme value theory for characterizing cold spell indicators.
• Provided a process-oriented understanding of extreme cold spells in China.
• Projected changes in cold spell characteristics under different warming scenarios, highlighting regional variations.

Funding

• National Key Research and Development Program of China (2020YFA0607804)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (42075011)

Citation

@article{Zhu2026Projection,
  author = {Zhu, Lianhua and Zhang, J and Zhang, Yuanxin and Li, Wei and Wang, Yi-Xiang and Zhu, Yingqi},
  title = {Projection the Risk of Winter Extreme Cold Spells in China Based on Statistical Modelling Under Global Warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70503},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70503}
}