Gelman et al. (2026) Downscaling of Temperatures Over the Eastern Mediterranean for the 21st Century

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-16
• Authors: Anton Gelman, Lidiya Shendrik, Efrat Morin, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Dorita Rostkier‐Edelstein
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70519

Research Groups

• Weizmann Institute of Science (Israel)
• University of Reading (UK)

Short Summary

This study develops a statistical downscaling method to project daily temperature variability in Israel using global climate models, improving the accuracy of temperature projections at local scales.

Objective

• To develop an analogue-based statistical downscaling method for projecting daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as diurnal temperature range, in Israel.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 32 homogenized meteorological stations across Israel.
• Temporal Scale: Daily data from 1979 to 2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5 and ERA5.1 reanalyses, CMIP6 models (10).
• Data sources: Station observations, satellite, and observation-based reanalysis data.

Main Results

• Downscaling improves temperature distributions at station scale, reducing absolute seasonal biases from 4°C to 9°C to less than 1°C.
• Trend analysis shows that the downscaled ensemble reproduces observed historical warming direction and seasonality.
• Late twenty-first-century projections show robust warming across all stations and seasons under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

Contributions

• This study provides local-scale temperature projections, revealing contrasts inaccessible to coarse global climate models, and informs heat stress, energy demand, agriculture, ecosystems, and adaptation planning.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Gelman2026Downscaling,
  author = {Gelman, Anton and Shendrik, Lidiya and Morin, Efrat and Garfinkel, Chaim I. and Rostkier‐Edelstein, Dorita},
  title = {Downscaling of Temperatures Over the Eastern Mediterranean for the 21st Century},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70519},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70519}
}