Terassi et al. (2026) Satellite and Reanalysis Dataset Dependence of ETCCDI Extreme Precipitation Trends in Paraná, Southern Brazil

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-30
• Authors: Paulo Miguel de Bodas Terassi, Jakeline Baratto, Vítor Hugo Rosa Biffi
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70520

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzes extreme precipitation variability in Paraná State, Brazil (1983–2024), finding that detected trends are highly dependent on the dataset used, with evidence of an extended mid-year dry season and rainfall redistribution toward the austral spring.

Objective

• To examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of extreme precipitation across Paraná State using a comparison of observational, satellite-derived, and reanalysis datasets.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Paraná State, southern Brazil), including analysis of central-northern, western, and eastern basins.
• Temporal Scale: 1983–2024 (analyzed at annual, seasonal, and monthly scales).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) indices; Sen's slope for trend magnitude estimation.
• Data sources:
  • Observational: BR-DWGD.
  • Satellite-derived: CHIRPS, PERSIANN-CDR.
  • Reanalysis: ERA5, ERA5-Land, AgERA5.

Main Results

• Dataset Divergence: Trends vary significantly by dataset; reanalysis products show homogeneous inland drying, while observational data exhibit stronger mesoscale heterogeneity.
• Precipitation Trends: Reanalysis indicates annual PRCPTOT reductions exceeding $-10\text{ mm yr}^{-1}$ in central-northern and western basins.
• Consecutive Dry Days (CDD): Significant CDD increases were found in reanalysis data (40.7% in ERA5, 57.4% in ERA5-Land, 56.4% in AgERA5) compared to only 8.5% in observational data.
• Seasonal Shifts:
  • April: PRCPTOT declines (up to $-4.48\text{ mm yr}^{-1}$ in BR-DWGD).
  • September: Widespread PRCPTOT reductions and CDD increases (up to $0.24\text{ days yr}^{-1}$).
  • October: Systematic precipitation increases (up to $4.18\text{ mm yr}^{-1}$ in CHIRPS).

Contributions

• Highlights the critical impact of structural uncertainty (dataset choice and temporal aggregation) on climate diagnostics in convectively dominated subtropical regions, cautioning against reliance on a single data source for hydroclimatic risk evaluation.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Terassi2026Satellite,
  author = {Terassi, Paulo Miguel de Bodas and Baratto, Jakeline and Biffi, Vítor Hugo Rosa},
  title = {Satellite and Reanalysis Dataset Dependence of <scp>ETCCDI</scp> Extreme Precipitation Trends in Paraná, Southern Brazil},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70520},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70520}
}