Wen et al. (2026) Intensifying Short‐Interval Heatwave‐To‐Rainfall Compound Extremes and Associated Exposure in the Indus Basin

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-03
• Authors: Shanshan Wen, Litong Zhao, Jianqing Zhai
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70534

Research Groups

• Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi
• University of Oxford, Department of Meteorology
• National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)

Short Summary

This study examines the frequency and characteristics of short-interval heat-to-rainfall sequences in the Indus Basin, projecting an increase in such events under future climate scenarios. The results highlight the potential impacts on irrigation-dependent basins and populations.

Objective

• Investigate the historical variability and trends of short-interval heat-to-rainfall sequences (sHW–HR) in the Indus Basin during 1979-2025.
• Project future changes in sHW–HR frequency under different climate scenarios using a skill-filtered ensemble of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Indus Basin, covering an area of approximately 1.12 million km².
• Temporal Scale: The historical analysis spans 1979-2025, while future projections are based on the 2071-2100 period.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5 reanalysis data for historical analysis, CHIRPS precipitation dataset for sensitivity testing, and a skill-filtered ensemble of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models for future projections.
• Data sources: Satellite-based (ERA5) and observation-based (CHIRPS) datasets.

Main Results

• Basin-mean annual sHW–HR frequency increased by 0.15 events yr−1 decade−1 during 1979-2025, with higher frequencies in the northern basin.
• Future projections indicate further intensification of sHW–HR sequences, with basin-mean frequencies reaching 3.05 and 3.85 events yr−1 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively.
• Mean heatwave duration is projected to increase from 5.41 days event−1 in the historical ensemble to 11.63 and 22.61 days event−1 under future climate scenarios.

Contributions

This study provides new insights into the characteristics and trends of short-interval heat-to-rainfall sequences, highlighting their potential impacts on irrigation-dependent basins and populations. The results contribute to a better understanding of compound hazards in the Indus Basin and inform decision-making for water resource management and risk assessment.

Funding

• This research was funded by the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) under the project "Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources" (grant no. MoES/16-17/001).
• Additional support was provided by the University of Oxford's Department of Meteorology through a research grant from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

Citation

@article{Wen2026Intensifying,
  author = {Wen, Shanshan and Zhao, Litong and Zhai, Jianqing},
  title = {Intensifying Short‐Interval Heatwave‐To‐Rainfall Compound Extremes and Associated Exposure in the Indus Basin},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70534},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70534}
}