Ramos‐Esteban et al. (2026) CMIP6 Historical Evaluation and Future Changes of Climate Extreme Indices at Regional Scale From the US ‐Mexico Border Region to Central America

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-07
• Authors: Ernesto Ramos‐Esteban, Tereza Cavazos, Gabriela Colorado‐Ruiz
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70536

Research Groups

• National Center for Atmospheric Prediction (NCEP)
• University of [Unknown]
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Short Summary

This study evaluates seven climate extreme indices and assesses their potential changes in 15 regions of the CORDEX-CAM domain, projecting significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes by 2080–2099.

Objective

• Evaluate the performance of 17 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in reproducing historical climate extreme indices.
• Assess future changes in climate extreme indices under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP: SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, covering 15 regions of the CORDEX-CAM domain from the southwestern United States to Central America.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1981–2010), near-future (2021–2040), mid-century (2041–2060), and far-future (2080–2099).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 17 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6, including EC-Earth3.
• Data sources: CHIRTS/CHIRPS and ERA5 reanalysis datasets.

Main Results

• The top 10 GCMs reproduce the observed spatial patterns and trends of climate extreme indices, with some biases in extreme rainfall (R10mm and R95p).
• Interannual variation of precipitation indices is underestimated.
• Projected increases in temperature extremes (TXx) by 2080–2099: 3°C–4°C under SSP2-4.5 and 4°C–6°C under SSP3-7.0.
• Projected changes in precipitation extremes (R95p): 10% to 30% increase in subtropical regions, with large uncertainty.

Contributions

This study provides the first analysis of future climate extreme indices at a regional scale for Mexico and Central America, highlighting the need for more regional climate information.

Funding

• [Unknown]

Citation

@article{RamosEsteban2026CMIP6,
  author = {Ramos‐Esteban, Ernesto and Cavazos, Tereza and Colorado‐Ruiz, Gabriela},
  title = {CMIP6 Historical Evaluation and Future Changes of Climate Extreme Indices at Regional Scale From the US ‐Mexico Border Region to Central America},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70536},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70536}
}