Carruthers et al. (2026) Representation of Long‐Term Observed UK Winter Precipitation Trends and Variability in UKCP18 Global Climate Models

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-02
• Authors: James Carruthers, Hayley Jane Fowler, Daniel Bannister, Selma B. Guerreiro
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70540

Research Groups

• University of Reading Climate Science Centre
• National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)
• Met Office Hadley Centre

Short Summary

This study assesses the representation of long-term precipitation trends in UK winter mean precipitation, focusing on the separation of dynamical and non-dynamical components using a dynamical adjustment methodology. The results highlight limitations in the UKCP18 GCMs' ability to capture observed precipitation variability and change.

Objective

• Investigate the representation of long-term precipitation trends in UK winter mean precipitation, separating dynamical and non-dynamical components.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (UK)
• Temporal Scale: Long-term (1901–2023)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Global climate models (GCMs) of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18)
• Data sources: Observed precipitation data, reanalysis datasets

Main Results

• UKCP18 GCMs simulate a winter wetting trend consistent with observations but attribute it to different drivers; circulation-driven increases vs. thermodynamic forcing in observations.
• Ensemble members underestimate non-dynamical precipitation changes and under-represent observed dynamical interannual variability.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the limitations of UKCP18 GCMs' ability to capture observed precipitation variability and change, which is crucial for climate risk assessments and future projections.

Funding

• NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) funded this research under grant number [insert reference code].
• Additional funding provided by the Met Office Hadley Centre.

Citation

@article{Carruthers2026Representation,
  author = {Carruthers, James and Fowler, Hayley Jane and Bannister, Daniel and Guerreiro, Selma B.},
  title = {Representation of Long‐Term Observed UK Winter Precipitation Trends and Variability in UKCP18 Global Climate Models},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70540},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70540}
}