Yurtseven et al. (2026) A Comprehensive Assessment of Drought Dynamics in Türkiye: An Integrated Spatiotemporal Analysis of Trends, Variability and Persistence

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-09
• Authors: Nami Yurtseven, Murat Türkeş
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70541

Research Groups

• Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Engineering, Istanbul Technical University (ITU)
• Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Istanbul Technical University (ITU)

Short Summary

This study assesses drought dynamics in Türkiye from 1980 to 2022 using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), revealing a systematic divergence between SPI and SPEI series. The results indicate that precipitation-only drought assessment may be incomplete, highlighting the importance of incorporating evaporative demand.

Objective

• Investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of meteorological, agro-ecological, and hydrological droughts in Türkiye over 1980–2022.
• Examine the differences between SPI and SPEI series to understand the impact of evaporative demand on drought assessment.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Nationwide analysis with regional assessments for Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia, Southeastern Anatolia, and coastal regions.
• Temporal Scale: 1980–2022 time period with monthly data aggregation at 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).
• Data sources: Monthly precipitation and temperature data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS).

Main Results

• Significant divergence between SPI and SPEI series, with SPEI showing increasing drought trends across most annual, water-year, and seasonal series.
• Prolonged periods of statistically significant increasing drought trends mainly from the late 1990s and early 2000s onward.
• Non-stationary or low-frequency-dominant scaling within the fitted range for SPEI-6 and SPEI-12.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive assessment of drought dynamics in Türkiye, highlighting the importance of incorporating evaporative demand into drought assessment.
• The results indicate a shift toward more persistent drought-prone hydroclimatic conditions in Türkiye, particularly in the SPEI-based climatic water-balance series.

Funding

• Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) for providing data and funding support.

Citation

@article{Yurtseven2026Comprehensive,
  author = {Yurtseven, Nami and Türkeş, Murat},
  title = {A Comprehensive Assessment of Drought Dynamics in Türkiye: An Integrated Spatiotemporal Analysis of Trends, Variability and Persistence},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70541},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70541}
}