Hussain et al. (2026) Climate Change Intensifies Cropland Drought Exposure in the Indus River Basin During the 21st Century

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-16
• Authors: Muhammad Asad Hussain, Barira Haider, Muhammad Waseem, Buda Su, Muhammad Akbar, Jinlong Huang, Jian Zhou, Tong Jiang
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70544

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates current and future cropland exposure to drought in the Indus River Basin (IRB), finding that exposure increases significantly over time, driven initially by climate change and subsequently by cropland expansion.

Objective

• To assess the present and future exposure of croplands to drought across the transboundary Indus River Basin under various climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Transboundary Indus River Basin (IRB), with particular focus on the central IRB, Indo-Pak Punjab, and riparian corridors.
• Temporal Scale: Baseline period (1995–2014) and three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Seven CMIP6 global climate models; Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) combined with run theory (incorporating $\text{CO}_2$ emissions).
• Data sources: Land-Use Harmonisation dataset (LUH2) for cropland data; ERA5 reanalysis data for model validation.

Main Results

• Drought frequency is projected to increase across all emission scenarios relative to the baseline.
• Spatial heterogeneity is evident, with the highest exposure concentrations in the central IRB, specifically the Indo-Pak Punjab and riparian corridors.
• Annual cumulative exposed cropland area is projected to increase from $1875.3\text{ km}^2$ to $2886.5\text{ km}^2$ by 2081–2100, representing a growth of 71.8%–88.1% compared to the baseline.
• Attribution analysis reveals that climate change is the dominant driver of increased exposure through 2060, whereas cropland expansion becomes the primary driver by 2081–2100.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive assessment of cropland drought exposure in the IRB, distinguishing between the temporal influence of climatic drivers versus socioeconomic (land-use) drivers to inform dual-track risk management.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Hussain2026Climate,
  author = {Hussain, Muhammad Asad and Haider, Barira and Waseem, Muhammad and Su, Buda and Akbar, Muhammad and Huang, Jinlong and Zhou, Jian and Jiang, Tong},
  title = {Climate Change Intensifies Cropland Drought Exposure in the Indus River Basin During the 21st Century},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70544},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70544}
}