Brendel (2026) Climate Transitions in the Argentine Pampas Exceed Global Rates and Reshape Crop Exposure: A Multi‐Period Köppen–Geiger Analysis (1901–2020)

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-14
• Authors: Andrea Soledad Brendel
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70558

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzes Köppen–Geiger climate zone transitions in the Argentine Pampas from 1901 to 2020, revealing that the region is a mid-latitude climate change hotspot driven primarily by shifts in precipitation seasonality and the development of winter droughts.

Objective

• To analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of climate zone transitions in the Argentine Pampas and evaluate the exposure of agricultural cropland to these shifts.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Argentine Pampas).
• Temporal Scale: 120 years, divided into four consecutive 30-year periods (1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, and 1991–2020).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Köppen–Geiger climate classification; pixel-by-pixel transition analysis (categorized into single-driver and compound transitions).
• Data sources: High-resolution climate maps.

Main Results

• Transition Rates: Between 8.6% and 14.3% of the regional area underwent climate transitions across consecutive periods, rates that consistently exceed global averages.
• Temporal Trajectory: The process was non-linear, shifting from aridity increase (early 20th century) to aridity reduction (mid-century) and finally to the dominance of winter drought development (recent period).
• Driver Analysis: Compound transitions (simultaneous thermal and hydroclimatic shifts) were marginal ($\le 0.5\%$), indicating that these processes operate independently.
• Recent Trends (1991–2020): 11.6% of the region was affected, with the majority of changes being single-driver hydroclimatic transitions from Cfa to Cwa climates (winter drought).
• Agricultural Impact: Over $3.1 \times 10^6$ ha of cropland are located within transition zones, with 91% of this area concentrated in the winter drought development belt (core soybean–maize–wheat system).

Contributions

• Identifies the Argentine Pampas as a mid-latitude climate change hotspot.
• Demonstrates that regional climate change is characterized by a reorganization of hydroclimatic regimes and precipitation seasonality rather than uniform annual trends.
• Provides a spatial basis for territorially differentiated adaptation strategies in high-productivity agricultural systems.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Brendel2026Climate,
  author = {Brendel, Andrea Soledad},
  title = {Climate Transitions in the Argentine Pampas Exceed Global Rates and Reshape Crop Exposure: A Multi‐Period Köppen–Geiger Analysis (1901–2020)},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70558},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70558}
}