Nagavciuc et al. (2026) From Rare to Recurrent: Intensifying Hot–Dry Extremes Across Romania

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-17
• Authors: Viorica Nagavciuc, Monica Ioniță
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70559

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the historical evolution and future projections of compound hot-dry months in Romania, revealing a significant increase in frequency and spatial extent, particularly in lowland regions, accelerating since the 1990s.

Objective

• To quantify the evolution of compound hot-dry months (defined by STI $\ge$ +1 and SPEI1 $\le$ -1) in Romania in terms of frequency, spatial extent, and co-occurrence probabilities, and to assess late-century projections.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale (Romania), with specific focus on the Moldavian Plateau, southeastern lowlands (Lower Danube–Bărăgan Plain–Black Sea coast), the eastern Carpathian foreland, and the Transylvanian Plateau.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1901–2024) and future projections (2071–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations (RoCLIB dataset) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.
• Data sources: A novel high-resolution monthly gridded observational dataset derived from 165 homogenized stations; Standardised Temperature Index (STI) and 1-month Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI1).

Main Results

• Historical Trends: There is a pronounced increase in the frequency and spatial extent of compound events, with acceleration observed since the 1990s.
• Spatial Distribution: Persistent hotspots of joint probability are located in the eastern Moldavian Plateau and southeastern lowlands, while elevated terrain provides a buffering effect.
• Probability Shifts: Joint probability increased by 12%–20% across most of the country. Conditional probability $P(\text{dry}|\text{hot})$ strengthened in the eastern Carpathian foreland and Transylvanian Plateau, while $P(\text{hot}|\text{dry})$ rose in southern and eastern lowlands.
• Future Projections (2071–2100): Compound events are expected to increase to 4–5 months $\text{yr}^{-1}$ (RCP4.5) and 6–7 months $\text{yr}^{-1}$ (RCP8.5), with joint probabilities reaching 20%–35% (RCP4.5) and 35%–60% (RCP8.5) in agricultural lowlands.

Contributions

• Develops a novel high-resolution monthly gridded observational dataset for Romania (1901–2024).
• Provides a detailed analysis of the coupling between heat and drought using conditional probabilities to distinguish whether risk is driven by increased temperature or decreased precipitation.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Nagavciuc2026From,
  author = {Nagavciuc, Viorica and Ioniță, Monica},
  title = {From Rare to Recurrent: Intensifying Hot–Dry Extremes Across Romania},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70559},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70559}
}