Adhikari et al. (2026) A 30‐Year Assessment of Temperature and Precipitation Indices Across Local Levels of Nepal

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-27
• Authors: Daisy Adhikari, Siddhant Baral
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70575

Research Groups

• Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Government of Nepal
• International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)
• University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute

Short Summary

This study presents a nationwide assessment of climate extremes across all 753 Local Level Administrative Units (LLAUs) of Nepal during 1995–2024 using ERA5-Land data. The research reveals a pervasive warming signal and geographically differentiated risk profiles due to climate change.

Objective

• Investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of climate extremes in Nepal at local decision-making scales

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Nationwide assessment across 753 Local Level Administrative Units (LLAUs) of Nepal
• Temporal Scale: 1995–2024 period, with a focus on long-term trends and variability

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5-Land data for climate indices derivation
• Data sources: Satellite-based ERA5-Land reanalysis data

Main Results

• Pervasive warming signal across Nepal, with significant increases in mean daily temperature (TMm) in 56.4% of LLAUs at a national mean rate of +0.20°C decade−1
• Shift toward warmer thermal regime, indicated by increased compound hot day–night events (TX3TN3) and decreased compound cold events (TXb3TNb3)
• Spatially heterogeneous precipitation responses, with increases in annual wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT), heavy-rainfall days (R20mm), and rainfall intensity (SDII) in the central and eastern mid-hills

Contributions

• Provides an LLAU-scale evidence base for locally targeted climate adaptation, water-resource management, and disaster-risk reduction in Nepal
• Identifies geographically differentiated risk profiles due to climate change, highlighting the need for region-specific adaptation strategies

Funding

• This research was supported by ICIMOD's Climate Change Adaptation in Mountain Regions (CCAMR) program (grant number CCAMR/ICIMOD/2020)
• Funded by the UK's Department for International Development (DFID) through the UK Government's Newton Fund

Citation

@article{Adhikari202630Year,
  author = {Adhikari, Daisy and Baral, Siddhant},
  title = {A 30‐Year Assessment of Temperature and Precipitation Indices Across Local Levels of Nepal},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70575},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70575}
}