Khan (2026) Emerging Hydroclimatic Risks in Pakistan: Regional Projections of Precipitation Characteristics Under CMIP6 Scenarios

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-23
• Authors: Firdos Khan
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70577

Research Groups

[Not specified in the abstract]

Short Summary

This study projects future precipitation patterns in Baluchistan, Pakistan, using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 pathways, finding increased monsoon precipitation across all regions, heterogeneous spatial-temporal trends, and varying precipitation variability, with implications for water management and agriculture.

Objective

• To investigate future precipitation patterns, including mean monthly, total monthly, maximum monthly, and monthly variability, in three homogeneous climate regions of Baluchistan, Pakistan, using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and to assess their association with agricultural yield.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Baluchistan, Pakistan, divided into three homogeneous climate regions.
• Temporal Scale: Future projections (implied mid-century for some results), daily precipitation data analyzed monthly.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (incorporating output from 8 General Circulation Models - GCMs).
• Data sources: Robust multi-model ensemble data for daily precipitation, developed through K-fold cross-validation.
• Methods: K-fold cross-validation (for ensemble data development), Bi-wavelet coherence analysis (for precipitation-agricultural yield association), non-parametric Kendall Tau test (for trend detection).

Main Results

• Region 2 consistently exhibits the highest projected precipitation values across most characteristics, while Region 1 records the lowest.
• All regions are projected to experience increased monsoon (July–August) precipitation under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
• Average precipitation variability is lowest in Region 3; Region 2 is projected to have higher variability, approaching 3.8 mm, in certain months and scenarios during mid-century.
• Trend analysis reveals heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns in precipitation, with both increasing and decreasing signals.
• Bi-wavelet coherence analysis showed divergent crop responses to precipitation characteristics, with both positive and negative associations with agricultural yield.

Contributions

• Provides essential insights into future hydroclimatic extremes and precipitation characteristics for Baluchistan, Pakistan, crucial for climate adaptation strategies.
• Develops robust multi-model ensemble daily precipitation data using K-fold cross-validation, enhancing projection reliability.
• Investigates future precipitation patterns using the latest CMIP6 multi-model ensemble under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 pathways for a vulnerable region.
• Assesses the association between various precipitation characteristics and agricultural yield using Bi-wavelet coherence analysis, revealing complex crop responses.
• Offers findings directly applicable to water management, agriculture, urban planning, livestock, ecosystem stability, and public health sectors.

Funding

[Not specified in the abstract]

Citation

@article{Khan2026Emerging,
  author = {Khan, Firdos},
  title = {Emerging Hydroclimatic Risks in Pakistan: Regional Projections of Precipitation Characteristics Under CMIP6 Scenarios},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70577},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70577}
}