Qian et al. (2026) Asymmetric Relationship Between the East China September Precipitation and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation in the Decaying Phases Over the Past Three Decades

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-09
• Authors: Haozhong Qian, Chujie Gao, Min Xu, Lan Zhang, Lulu Wang, Shuyao Zha, 钱俊龙
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70584

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study examines the asymmetric impact of decaying El Niño and La Niña events on September precipitation in East China, finding that La Niña leads to significant precipitation deficits while El Niño results in weak positive anomalies.

Objective

• To explore the asymmetric effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East China September precipitation (ECSP) during its decaying stages.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: East China and the North Pacific.
• Temporal Scale: 1991–2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified.
• Data sources: Observational and reanalysis data.

Main Results

• Asymmetric Precipitation: There is a positive relationship between ECSP and preceding winter ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but the effects differ by event type: El Niño events correlate with weak positive precipitation anomalies, whereas La Niña events correlate with strong precipitation deficits.
• Mechanism for La Niña: Cold SST anomalies persist into early autumn, maintaining warm North Pacific SSTs and stimulating a local anomalous anticyclone. This induces abnormal northerly winds and reduces water vapor transport to East China.
• Mechanism for El Niño: Warm SST anomalies decay rapidly by summer; consequently, the associated North Pacific cyclone and cold SST anomalies do not persist, leaving water vapor flux in September largely unaffected.

Contributions

• Elucidates the physical mechanism behind the asymmetric influence of ENSO on early autumn precipitation in East China, highlighting the role of North Pacific SST anomalies and the differing durations of El Niño and La Niña events.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Qian2026Asymmetric,
  author = {Qian, Haozhong and Gao, Chujie and Xu, Min and Zhang, Lan and Wang, Lulu and Zha, Shuyao and 钱俊龙},
  title = {Asymmetric Relationship Between the East China September Precipitation and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation in the Decaying Phases Over the Past Three Decades},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70584},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70584}
}