Leite et al. (2026) ENSO or the Atlantic: Which Actually Governs the Hydrological Vulnerability of the Caatinga?

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-17
• Authors: Jonathan Antunes Ponte Cavalcante Leite, Bartolomeu Israel de Souza, S. Asins, Luíz Bueno da Silva
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70595

Research Groups

• Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA)
• Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)

Short Summary

This study challenges the traditional understanding of precipitation governance in the Caatinga biome, revealing that the Atlantic Ocean has a statistically dominant influence on regional water vulnerability modulation.

Objective

• Investigate the role of oceanic signals in modulating precipitation variability in the Caatinga biome and challenge the paradigm attributing it to ENSO phenomenon.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, focusing on the Caatinga biome in northeastern Brazil.
• Temporal Scale: Long-term (1981-2019) with a focus on interannual variability.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Seasonal ARX/HAC model for statistical analysis.
• Data sources: High-resolution CHIRPS precipitation data processed via Google Earth Engine.

Main Results

• The Atlantic Interhemispheric Variability (PC2) controls drought thresholds more intensely than ENSO (PC1).
• PC2 explained a precipitation deficit up to 77% higher than PC1 in the northern districts.
• The ITCZ positioning is primarily driven by PC2.

Contributions

• This study provides original evidence of the dominant role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating water vulnerability in the Caatinga biome, challenging the traditional understanding attributed to ENSO phenomenon.

Funding

• This research was supported by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) under grant numbers 305.458/2018-3 and 311.451/2020-6.

Citation

@article{Leite2026ENSO,
  author = {Leite, Jonathan Antunes Ponte Cavalcante and Souza, Bartolomeu Israel de and Asins, S. and Silva, Luíz Bueno da},
  title = {ENSO or the Atlantic: Which Actually Governs the Hydrological Vulnerability of the Caatinga?},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70595},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70595}
}