Yang et al. (2026) Variability and Attribution of the Surface Water Budget Under the Background of Warming and Wetting in Northwest China

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-13
• Authors: Jinhu Yang, Qiang Zhang, Zhuoqi Liang, Xiaoyun Liu, S K Wang, Bocheng Yang
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70599

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics, long-term trends, and multi-scale driving mechanisms of the terrestrial surface water budget across Northwest China, revealing pronounced spatiotemporal variability and an overall increasing trend towards water surplus, primarily driven by precipitation increments.

Objective

• To conduct a comprehensive and systematic investigation into the spatiotemporal heterogeneity characteristics, long-term variation trends, and multi-scale influencing factors of the surface water budget across Northwest China, addressing uncertainties for regional water resource assessment and ecological security governance under a distinctive climatic regime shift.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, covering Northwest China, with specific analyses for northern Xinjiang, southeastern Qinghai, Shaanxi Province, and east/west divisions along 90° E.
• Temporal Scale: Multi-scale, including annual, intra-annual (summer half-year, winter half-year), long-term linear trends, and decadal variations (before and after 2000).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Classical terrestrial surface water balance equation as the theoretical framework.
• Data sources: High-quality MERRA-2 atmospheric reanalysis dataset.

Main Results

• The surface water budget in Northwest China exhibits pronounced spatiotemporal variability across multiple scales.
• Spatially, annual mean surface water surplus dominates northern Xinjiang, southeastern Qinghai, and most of Shaanxi Province, while widespread water deficit prevails elsewhere.
• Intra-annually, an east–west contrast at 90° E shows water surplus in the summer half-year and deficit in the winter half-year in the eastern part, with the opposite pattern in the western part.
• The annual surface water budget across the entire study region shows a significant increasing trend towards water surplus.
• Seasonally, most areas experience a deteriorating water deficit trend during the winter half-year (except northern and eastern Xinjiang), while the summer half-year witnesses a widespread water surplus enhancement trend.
• Decadally, annual surface water budgets were basically balanced for the whole region, showing a surplus trend before 2000 and then a deficit trend in the winter half-year, with the opposite in the summer half-year.
• Precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, and surface runoff all positively contribute to the regional surface water budget, predominantly governed by the dominant increment of precipitation over evapotranspiration and runoff losses.
• Quantitative attribution analysis reveals precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, and surface runoff contribute 50.8%, 44.7%, and 4.6% to the overall variation of the surface water budget, respectively.
• Indirect climatic drivers, such as relative humidity and meridional wind velocity, impose relatively dominant impacts, with contribution rates reaching 24.6% and 17.0%, respectively.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, systematic, and in-depth elucidation of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, variation patterns, and driving mechanisms of the terrestrial surface water cycle in Northwest China under climate warming and humidification.
• Offers critical insights for regional water resource assessment and ecological security governance by quantifying the contributions of direct hydrological components and indirect climatic factors to the surface water budget.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Yang2026Variability,
  author = {Yang, Jinhu and Zhang, Qiang and Liang, Zhuoqi and Liu, Xiaoyun and Wang, S K and Yang, Bocheng},
  title = {Variability and Attribution of the Surface Water Budget Under the Background of Warming and Wetting in Northwest China},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70599},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70599}
}