Nayak et al. (2026) Projected Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration Across Indian Climate Regimes Using Bias‐Corrected CMIP6 Simulations

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-20
• Authors: Ajit Kumar Nayak, S. Barik, N. M. Jeepsa, S. Pradhan, P. Panigrahi, S. Mohanty, Mithlesh Kumar, B. S. Satpathy, A. Sarangi
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70603

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates the historical accuracy and future projections of bias-corrected CMIP6-derived reference evapotranspiration ($\text{ET}_0$) across 10 benchmark stations in India, finding a general future increase in evaporative demand characterized by significant spatial and seasonal heterogeneity.

Objective

• To evaluate the historical performance and future evolution of bias-corrected CMIP6-derived $\text{ET}_0$ across diverse climatic regimes (arid, semi-arid, sub-humid, humid, and perhumid) in India.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 10 benchmark stations representing various climatic zones across India.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1991–2013) and future projections (near-, mid-, and late-century).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 (bias-corrected), FAO-56 Penman–Monteith method (for observed $\text{ET}_0$ estimation).
• Data sources: Station-observed data and a published South Asian bias-corrected CMIP6 dataset.

Main Results

• Historical Performance: CMIP6-derived $\text{ET}_0$ reproduced seasonal variability with higher accuracy during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons than during winter and post-monsoon; however, simulated trend magnitudes were generally weaker than observed.
• Future Projections: Mean $\text{ET}_0$ is projected to increase from the near to late century, with late-century increases estimated at 6%–10% under SSP2-4.5 and 10%–18% under SSP5-8.5.
• Seasonal/Spatial Variability: The largest relative increases are expected during winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Responses are heterogeneous; for example, median $\text{ET}_0$ remained similar or declined at stations such as Junagadh and Bhavanisagar.
• Extreme Values: Q90 exceedance frequencies showed substantial variation depending on the scenario and location.

Contributions

• The study demonstrates that future changes in atmospheric evaporative demand in India are not uniform but are highly dependent on the specific climatic regime and season, providing a nuanced alternative to spatially exhaustive national assessments.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Nayak2026Projected,
  author = {Nayak, Ajit Kumar and Barik, S. and Jeepsa, N. M. and Pradhan, S. and Panigrahi, P. and Mohanty, S. and Kumar, Mithlesh and Satpathy, B. S. and Sarangi, A.},
  title = {Projected Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration Across Indian Climate Regimes Using Bias‐Corrected CMIP6 Simulations},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70603},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70603}
}