Oliveira‐Santos et al. (2026) Shifting Patterns of Precipitation Extremes in the S outheast A tlantic Basin— B razil: From Observed Trends to Future Projections

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-08
• Authors: Pedro Lucas Oliveira‐Santos, Wanderson Luiz‐Silva, Daniela Carneiro Rodrigues, Fabrício Polifke da Silva, Antonio Carlos Oscar Júnior
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70629

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract. Data providers include the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) and the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET).

Short Summary

This study investigated the climatology, observed trends, and future projections of precipitation extremes in Brazil's Southeast Atlantic Hydrographic Basin (SAHB). It found a significant increase in mean rainfall intensity, longer dry periods, and spatially heterogeneous intensification of extreme events, with future projections indicating further intensified extreme rainfall and prolonged dry spells, particularly under high-emission scenarios.

Objective

• To investigate the climatology, observed trends, and future projections of precipitation extremes in the Southeast Atlantic Hydrographic Basin (SAHB) to support adaptation strategies, risk management, and civil protection.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southeast Atlantic Hydrographic Basin (SAHB), Brazil.
• Temporal Scale:
  • Observed data: 1980 to 2023
  • Future projections: 2030–2100

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • EC‐Earth3 Earth system model (CMIP6) for future projections.
  • Mann–Kendall test for trend detection.
  • Sen's slope estimator for trend assessment.
  • Standardized indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for evaluating precipitation extremes.
• Data sources:
  • Daily precipitation data from 244 pluviometric and meteorological stations of the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) and the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET).
  • Simulations from the EC‐Earth3 Earth system model, considering SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 emission scenarios.

Main Results

• A significant increase in mean rainfall intensity was observed.
• A longer duration of dry periods was detected, with an increase of approximately 4 days per decade.
• Extreme precipitation events over short periods exhibited spatially heterogeneous intensification, with greater intensity observed in coastal and mountainous regions.
• Future projections indicate intensified extreme rainfall, with an increase of up to 41 mm per decade in precipitation above the 95th percentile, especially under the high‐emission scenario (SSP5‐8.5).
• Future projections also suggest longer dry spells, particularly under the high‐emission scenario.
• These changes imply greater susceptibility to hydrometeorological disasters and significant impacts on water security and territorial planning across the basin.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of precipitation extremes (climatology, observed trends, and future projections) for the socioeconomically relevant Southeast Atlantic Hydrographic Basin in Brazil.
• Offers critical information for developing adaptation strategies, risk management plans, and civil protection measures in the face of climate change impacts on regional water resources.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{OliveiraSantos2026Shifting,
  author = {Oliveira‐Santos, Pedro Lucas and Luiz‐Silva, Wanderson and Rodrigues, Daniela Carneiro and Silva, Fabrício Polifke da and Júnior, Antonio Carlos Oscar},
  title = {Shifting Patterns of Precipitation Extremes in the S outheast A tlantic Basin— B razil: From Observed Trends to Future Projections},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70629},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70629}
}