Guzman et al. (2026) Beyond ENSO : Temperature, Rainfall Variability and Emerging Climate Risks in Belize

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-25
• Authors: Martha Guzman, James Arthur Renwick
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70631

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the localized influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Belize's climate using multi-decadal station data, revealing a negligible impact on rainfall and a modest one on temperature, with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and independent warming trends being more significant drivers.

Objective

• To evaluate the localized influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on daily temperature and precipitation variability in Belize and place national trends in a broader regional context.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Belize (seven meteorological stations), regional atmosphere over Belize, surrounding sea surface.
• Temporal Scale: Multi-decadal (1975–2024) analysis of daily records.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5 reanalysis (for validation and spatial analysis).
• Data sources: Daily temperature and precipitation records from seven long-term meteorological stations in Belize; gridded reanalysis fields (ERA5).

Main Results

• ENSO's influence on Belizean rainfall is negligible across all stations and seasons (correlations below |r| = 0.10, explaining less than 1% of variance).
• ENSO's influence on temperature is modest, particularly for nighttime minimum values during the dry season (r up to 0.36).
• The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a stronger driver of temperature variability than ENSO at six of seven stations, explaining 16% versus 4% of variance.
• Belize has experienced sustained warming of +0.2 °C to +0.5 °C per decade, with asymmetric nighttime warming.
• Extreme heat days have increased by +3.5 to +11.9 days per decade, with acceleration during El Niño years.
• Rainfall records show declining rain day frequency without proportional decreases in totals, indicating intensifying precipitation events.

Contributions

• Challenges prevailing ENSO-centric assumptions for Central America by providing nation-specific, multi-driver analyses for Belize.
• Quantifies localized ENSO influence on temperature and precipitation using station-level observations, which were previously scarce for Belize.
• Identifies the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a more significant driver of temperature variability than ENSO in Belize.
• Provides empirical thresholds and trend estimates for national early warning systems, agricultural planning, and heat health guidelines in Belize.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Guzman2026Beyond,
  author = {Guzman, Martha and Renwick, James Arthur},
  title = {Beyond ENSO : Temperature, Rainfall Variability and Emerging Climate Risks in Belize},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70631},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70631}
}