Zheng et al. (2026) Combined and separate effects of future climate change and elevated atmospheric CO 2 on maize growth and water consumption in the US Corn Belt

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-23
• Authors: Jiazhong Zheng, Weiguang Wang, Jiaxiang Zhao, Liyan Yang, Shuai Cheng, Bernard Engel
• DOI: 10.1002/jsfa.71061

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates the combined effects of climate change and elevated $\text{CO}2$ on irrigated maize in the US Corn Belt, finding that while elevated $\text{CO}2$ partially mitigates yield losses and water footprint increases, it does not offset the adverse effects of warming on growing season duration.

Objective

• To quantify the separate and combined effects of future climate change and elevated atmospheric $\text{CO}_2$ concentrations on the growth, yield, and water consumption of irrigated maize in the Southwestern Plain of the Great Lakes (SPG).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southwestern Plain of the Great Lakes (SPG), US Corn Belt.
• Temporal Scale: Baseline period (1995–2014) and three future periods: near-future (2025–2049), mid-future (2050–2074), and far-future (2075–2099).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) driven by three bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs).
• Data sources: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for climate scenarios; baseline $\text{CO}_2$ at 378 ppm.

Main Results

• Climate Impact: RCP 8.5 caused more severe shortening of the growing season, greater yield losses, and a higher increase in water footprint compared to RCP 4.5.
• $\text{CO}2$ Mitigation (Yield): Elevated $\text{CO}2$ reduced projected yield losses by 2.7 percentage points under RCP 4.5 and by 3.5 percentage points under RCP 8.5.
• $\text{CO}2$ Mitigation (Water): Elevated $\text{CO}2$ reduced water footprints by 12.1% under RCP 4.5 and by 19.3% under RCP 8.5.
• Phenological Offset: Elevated $\text{CO}_2$ had a negligible effect on offsetting the shortening of the growing season, providing only 0.2 days of offset under RCP 4.5 and 0.3 days under RCP 8.5.

Contributions

• Quantifies the extent to which the $\text{CO}2$ fertilization effect offsets climate-induced stress in $\text{C}4$ maize, demonstrating that while water use and yield are partially buffered, phenological shortening remains a critical vulnerability that requires adaptation strategies (e.g., cultivar selection and sowing date adjustments).

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Zheng2026Combined,
  author = {Zheng, Jiazhong and Wang, Weiguang and Zhao, Jiaxiang and Yang, Liyan and Cheng, Shuai and Engel, Bernard},
  title = {Combined and separate effects of future climate change and elevated atmospheric CO 2 on maize growth and water consumption in the US Corn Belt},
  journal = {Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/jsfa.71061},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/jsfa.71061}
}