Cotterill et al. (2026) Increasing urban flash flood risk attributable to both climate and development

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Identification

• Journal: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-02
• Authors: Daniel Cotterill, Dann Mitchell, Peter A. Stott, Paul Bates, Youtong Rong, Leanne Archer
• DOI: 10.1002/qj.70253

Research Groups

• University of Leeds, Department of Civil Engineering
• National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)

Short Summary

This study examines the impact of climate change and urbanization on a 2014 flash-flooding event in Leeds, UK, using a convection-permitting climate model combined with a flood inundation model.

Objective

• Investigate the effects of both climate change and urbanisation on rainfall-driven flooding events

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: City-scale analysis of the urban area of Leeds, UK
• Temporal Scale: Subdaily timescale (flash-flooding event in 2014)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Convection-permitting climate model (CPM) combined with a flood inundation model
• Data sources: Climate model simulations, historical rainfall data

Main Results

• The extent of flooding in the urban area of Leeds was increased by 49% due to both climate change and urbanisation during the 2014 flash-flooding event.
• Urbanisation contributed 29% more to the increase in flood extent compared to climate change (16%).

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the combined effects of climate change and urbanisation on rainfall-driven flooding events, highlighting the need for a more nuanced understanding of these factors.

Funding

• This research was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the European Union's Horizon 2020 programme.

Citation

@article{Cotterill2026Increasing,
  author = {Cotterill, Daniel and Mitchell, Dann and Stott, Peter A. and Bates, Paul and Rong, Youtong and Archer, Leanne},
  title = {Increasing urban flash flood risk attributable to both climate and development},
  journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/qj.70253},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70253}
}