Skinner et al. (2026) Decadal‐scale drivers of South Pacific hydroclimate variability

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-13
• Authors: Daniel T. Skinner, Clarence H. Robbins, Gordon N. Inglis, Manoj Joshi, Peter Guy Langdon, Adrian J. Matthews, Mark D. Peaple, Timothy J. Osborn, David Sear
• DOI: 10.1002/qj.70312

Research Groups

• Climate Modelling Branch, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
• School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne

Short Summary

This study investigates the direct atmospheric mechanisms driving variability in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) on decadal to multidecadal time-scales using prescribed sea-surface temperature perturbations. The research reveals that Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) forcing has a significant impact on SPCZ position, while other climate modes have weaker or no effects.

Objective

• Investigate the direct atmospheric mechanisms driving variability in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) on decadal to multidecadal time-scales

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global circulation model simulations with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere and the South Pacific region.
• Temporal Scale: Decadal to multidecadal time-scales, specifically 30-year periods.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Intermediate Global Circulation Model version 4 (IGCM4)
• Data sources: Prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) perturbations

Main Results

• IPO forcing produces a significant northeastward shift in the SPCZ, while a negative IPO shifts the SPCZ southwestward.
• Anomalous moisture convergence is the dominant control on SPCZ position, rather than altered Rossby-wave refraction.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the direct atmospheric mechanisms driving variability in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) on decadal to multidecadal time-scales.
• The findings highlight the importance of IPO forcing in modulating SPCZ position, which has implications for understanding regional climate variability.

Funding

• Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Climate Modelling Branch project: "Understanding Decadal Climate Variability"
• Australian Government Department of Industry, Innovation and Science grant: "Climate Modelling and Prediction"

Citation

@article{Skinner2026Decadalscale,
  author = {Skinner, Daniel T. and Robbins, Clarence H. and Inglis, Gordon N. and Joshi, Manoj and Langdon, Peter Guy and Matthews, Adrian J. and Peaple, Mark D. and Osborn, Timothy J. and Sear, David},
  title = {Decadal‐scale drivers of South Pacific hydroclimate variability},
  journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/qj.70312},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70312}
}