Upadhyay et al. (2026) Understanding Drought Dynamics in Semiarid Regions: A Multidecadal, Multi‐Index Case Study From Western Rajasthan, India

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Identification

• Journal: World Water Policy
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-23
• Authors: Era Upadhyay, Jhumoor Biswas, Akhilesh Mishra, Pradeep Kumar, Basant Maheshwari
• DOI: 10.1002/wwp2.70081

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzes the climatic drivers and spatial dynamics of drought in four districts of Rajasthan, India, from 1951 to 2020, revealing that while precipitation trends are stable, significant warming is intensifying drought through district-specific climatic mechanisms.

Objective

• To delineate district-specific drought regimes and identify the primary climatic drivers of drought across four highly drought-prone districts in Rajasthan (Barmer, Hanumangarh, Jaisalmer, and Jodhpur).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: District level (Barmer, Hanumangarh, Jaisalmer, and Jodhpur), Rajasthan, India.
• Temporal Scale: 1951 to 2020.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Effective Standardized Precipitation Index (eSPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) computed via DrinC software; Correlation matrices and Principal Component Analysis (PCA).
• Data sources: Long-term meteorological data.

Main Results

• Spatial Heterogeneity: Barmer and Jaisalmer experienced the most frequent and intense droughts.
• Climatic Trends: No significant long-term precipitation trends were found, but a consistent and significant warming trend was observed, increasing evaporative demand particularly during premonsoon months.
• District-Specific Drivers: PCA identified that droughts in Barmer and Jodhpur are primarily driven by wind and temperature, whereas droughts in Hanumangarh are sensitive to humidity.
• Interdependencies: Strong correlations were found between temperature, relative humidity, cloud cover, and wind speed.

Contributions

• Provides a nuanced, multi-index analysis of meteorological drought that moves beyond "one-size-fits-all" approaches to advocate for district-specific water governance.
• Offers a transferable methodology for analyzing drought drivers in other globally significant semiarid and arid landscapes.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Upadhyay2026Understanding,
  author = {Upadhyay, Era and Biswas, Jhumoor and Mishra, Akhilesh and Kumar, Pradeep and Maheshwari, Basant},
  title = {Understanding Drought Dynamics in Semiarid Regions: A Multidecadal, Multi‐Index Case Study From Western Rajasthan, India},
  journal = {World Water Policy},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/wwp2.70081},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wwp2.70081}
}