Dian et al. (2026) Climate Change Projections for Heating and Cooling Periods: A Focus on Seasonal Shifts

Identification

• Journal: Lecture notes in civil engineering
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Csenge Dian, Rita Pongrácz, Judit Bartholy, András Horkai, Attila Talamon
• DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-14019-7_6

Research Groups

• Winergy Ltd., Budapest, Hungary
• Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
• Ybl Miklós Faculty of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Obuda University, Budapest, Hungary

Short Summary

This study projects the impact of climate change on heating and cooling periods in Hungary, revealing significant seasonal shifts with more extreme summers and winters, shorter transition seasons, and a growing importance of mechanical cooling and passive architectural solutions for buildings.

Objective

• To analyze past and foreseeable future temperature and weather changes that significantly impact energy demand for heating and cooling in Hungary, with a focus on seasonal shifts and their implications for building regulations and adaptive capacity.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Hungary, with specific references to Budapest and the Carpathian Basin.
• Temporal Scale: Analysis of past climate data (e.g., 1946-2001, 1961-2010) and projections for the foreseeable future, including longer-term scenarios up to 2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Regional Climate Model (RegCM) simulations, CORDEX framework for regional climate projections, and General Circulation Model (GCM) data with bias correction techniques (e.g., quantile mapping).
• Data sources: HungaroMet Station Database for Budapest, local station data, and high-resolution temperature CORDEX data.

Main Results

• Climate change is projected to lead to significant seasonal shifts in Hungary, characterized by more extreme summers and winters and shorter transition periods.
• The factors defined in current building regulatory frameworks are likely to become obsolete, necessitating more frequent review and adaptation.
• Mechanical cooling systems are becoming increasingly important, shifting the focus from historically heating-centered mechanical systems.
• Passive and architectural solutions for building climate control are expected to gain prominence as adaptive strategies.

Contributions

This article contributes to the understanding of climate change impacts on building energy demand in Central Europe, specifically Hungary, by projecting shifts in heating and cooling periods. It highlights the urgent need for adapting building regulations and design strategies to accommodate more extreme seasons and the increasing demand for cooling, offering insights for climate change adaptation in the built environment.

Funding

No specific funding projects, programs, or reference codes were explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Dian2026Climate,
  author = {Dian, Csenge and Pongrácz, Rita and Bartholy, Judit and Horkai, András and Talamon, Attila},
  title = {Climate Change Projections for Heating and Cooling Periods: A Focus on Seasonal Shifts},
  journal = {Lecture notes in civil engineering},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/978-3-032-14019-7_6},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-14019-7_6}
}