Mirzaei et al. (2026) Climate Change Effects on Flood Mapping Analysis of Talar Watershed (Northern Iran) using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2)

Identification

• Journal: Lecture notes in civil engineering
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Sajjad Mirzaei, Mehdi Vafakhah, Giuseppe Francesco Cesare Lama, Giovanni Battista Chirico, Stefano Papirio
• DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_18

Research Groups

• Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Mazandaran, Iran
• Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering (DICEA), University of Naples Federico II, Napoli, Naples, Italy
• Department of Agricultural Sciences, Water Resources Management and Biosystems Engineering Division, University of Naples Federico II, Portici (NA), Naples, Italy

Short Summary

This study assesses future flood mapping variations in the Talar Watershed (Northern Iran) under climate change scenarios using the CanESM2 model and a mixed hydrological-hydraulic approach. It finds that while Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall (AMDR) is projected to decrease, specific long-term climate pathways (e.g., RCP 4.5 for 2006–2100) are predicted to generate the most significant flood impacts.

Objective

• To analyze the variations in future flood mapping predictions over the Talar River at Shirgah City (Northern Iran) by applying the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) for different future periods.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Talar Watershed, Shirgah City, Northern Iran.
• Temporal Scale: Current and future decades, specifically future periods corresponding to RCP scenarios (e.g., 2006–2040, 2006–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2)
  • Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)
  • "Mixed" hydrological and hydraulic model (hydrological model using a top-down approach, 2D hydraulic simulations in unsteady inflow conditions).
• Data sources:
  • Daily rainfall data from six synoptic stations.
  • Experimental datasets for hydrological and hydraulic model calibration and validation.

Main Results

• Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall (AMDR) is projected to reduce within the Talar Watershed, particularly at Semnan and Dowshan Tappeh stations.
• The combination of RCP 4.5 for the period 2006–2040 generates the lowest predicted floods.
• The combination of RCP 4.5 for the period 2006–2100 produces the most impacting floods on the examined study area.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on flood mapping in the Talar Watershed, a vulnerable region in Northern Iran, using a robust modeling chain (GCM downscaling, hydrological, and hydraulic models).
• Offers specific insights into the projected changes in AMDR and flood severity under different RCP scenarios and future timeframes, which is crucial for regional flood hazard analysis and management.
• Demonstrates the application of a "mixed" hydrological and hydraulic modeling approach for future flood prediction in a complex watershed.

Funding

• Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Mirzaei2026Climate,
  author = {Mirzaei, Sajjad and Vafakhah, Mehdi and Lama, Giuseppe Francesco Cesare and Chirico, Giovanni Battista and Papirio, Stefano},
  title = {Climate Change Effects on Flood Mapping Analysis of Talar Watershed (Northern Iran) using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2)},
  journal = {Lecture notes in civil engineering},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_18},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-18708-6_18}
}