Yang et al. (2026) Methodology for Analyzing Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Impacts

Identification

• Journal: Lecture notes in civil engineering
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Tijia Yang, Xin Zhang, Jie Qin, Teng Wu, Gaohu Sun
• DOI: 10.1007/978-981-95-4889-7_32

Research Groups

• School of Harbor Waterway and Coastal Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
• International Economic & Technical Cooperation and Exchange Center, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing, China

Short Summary

This study developed and validated a methodology for analyzing glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) impacts by predicting the 2023 Merzbacher Glacier Lake (MGL) outburst event. The predicted outburst time (July 3rd-5th) and volume (1.0 x 10^7 m³) were confirmed by subsequent satellite imagery and hydrological observations, demonstrating the methodology's accuracy for early warning.

Objective

• To develop and validate a comprehensive methodology for analyzing glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) impacts, specifically by predicting the outburst time, volume, and downstream effects of a potential 2023 Merzbacher Glacier Lake (MGL) outburst flood.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Merzbacher Glacier Lake (MGL) in the Tomur-Khan Tengri Mountains (China-Kyrgyzstan border), and its downstream area including the Kunmalik River, Xiehela hydrological station, Wensu County, and Awati County.
• Temporal Scale: June to July 2023 for monitoring and prediction of the GLOF event.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System) 2D unsteady flow hydraulic computation model for hydrodynamic modeling, flood routing simulation, and flood inundation mapping.
  • Statistical empirical model to establish a relationship curve between lake volume and lake area (derived from HEC-RAS generated water volume-water level curve using the geometric tangent method).
• Data sources:
  • Satellite imagery monitoring (for glacial lake water body area changes).
  • Hydrological station discharge and water level data from downstream Xiehela station.
  • Observed discharge data from Xiehela station (used as upstream boundary condition for HEC-RAS).

Main Results

• The Merzbacher Glacier Lake outburst occurred between July 3rd and July 5th, 2023.
• The estimated outburst flood volume was approximately 1.0 x 10^7 cubic meters.
• Flood inundation generally extended from the river's centerline outwards, affecting some agricultural land in Wensu County.
• The impact on urban areas was minimal.
• Most river sections experienced inundation depths ranging from 0.0 meters to 1.0 meter, and inundation velocities between 0.0 meters per second and 1.0 meter per second.
• Higher inundation depths (average exceeding 2.0 meters) and velocities (average exceeding 8.0 meters per second) were observed near the Xiehela station outlet.
• The observed outburst time and volume aligned well with the study's predictions, validating the proposed methodology.

Contributions

• Developed a comprehensive methodology for analyzing GLOF impacts by integrating remote sensing monitoring and hydrodynamic modeling.
• Provided a validated approach for predicting GLOF outburst time, volume, and downstream impacts.
• Offered valuable early warning support for potential downstream flood inundation risks, extendable to other glacial lake regions.
• Successfully predicted and validated the 2023 Merzbacher Glacier Lake outburst event.

Funding

• National Key R&D Program of China (2023YFC3209302)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (52179061 and 52079043)

Citation

@article{Yang2026Methodology,
  author = {Yang, Tijia and Zhang, Xin and Qin, Jie and Wu, Teng and Sun, Gaohu},
  title = {Methodology for Analyzing Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Impacts},
  journal = {Lecture notes in civil engineering},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/978-981-95-4889-7_32},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-95-4889-7_32}
}