Klimiuk et al. (2026) Regional nudged storylines for the European hot and dry summers 2018–2022: response of evapotranspiration regimes to climate change

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Identification

• Journal: Climate Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Tatiana Klimiuk, Antonio Sánchez-Benítez, Patrick Ludwig, Joaquim Ginete Pinto
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-026-08205-0

Research Groups

• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
• University of Reading, Department of Meteorology

Short Summary

This study investigates the spatial and seasonal variability of warming amplification during heatwaves across Europe using circulation-nudged regional climate simulations. The results show that warming amplification is closely linked to changes in the evapotranspiration regime and land-atmosphere coupling.

Objective

• Investigate the mechanisms underlying the spatial and event-to-event differences in warming amplification during heatwaves across Europe

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental-scale simulations over Europe, with a focus on Central Europe
• Temporal Scale: Summer months (June to August) for the summers 2018–2022

Methodology and Data

• Models used: circulation-nudged regional climate model (RCM)
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis data, satellite observations of soil moisture and surface fluxes

Main Results

• Warming amplification is spatially heterogeneous and seasonally dependent, with the strongest amplification over Central Europe occurring in August.
• The evaporative fraction-soil moisture framework shows that warming amplification is closely linked to changes in the evapotranspiration regime.
• The strongest amplification occurs when warming induces a transition from energy-limited to moisture-limited conditions.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the mechanisms underlying spatial and event-to-event differences in warming amplification during heatwaves across Europe, highlighting the importance of land-atmosphere coupling and soil moisture changes.
• The findings have implications for robust projections of future heat extremes and identifying regions most vulnerable to disproportionate increases in heatwave intensity.

Funding

• This research was funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 programme (project acronym: HEATWAVES) under grant agreement No. 101003572.

Citation

@article{Klimiuk2026Regional,
  author = {Klimiuk, Tatiana and Sánchez-Benítez, Antonio and Ludwig, Patrick and Pinto, Joaquim Ginete},
  title = {Regional nudged storylines for the European hot and dry summers 2018–2022: response of evapotranspiration regimes to climate change},
  journal = {Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-026-08205-0},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08205-0}
}