Meyer et al. (2026) An Eulerian evaluation of intense low-pressure systems over North America in CMIP6 and a regional climate model

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Identification

• Journal: Climate Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-26
• Authors: Victorien De Meyer, Alejandro Di Luca, Philippe Gachon
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-026-08260-7

Research Groups

• University of British Columbia Climate Dynamics Group
• Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Climate Modelling Branch
• McGill University Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

Short Summary

This study evaluates the performance of 28 global climate models in simulating surface pressure anomalies and near-surface humidity during intense extratropical cyclones over North America. A novel Eulerian approach is introduced to characterize local temporal evolution, highlighting regional differences and model biases.

Objective

• Investigate the ability of CMIP6 GCMs and CRCM6 to accurately simulate surface conditions associated with intense extratropical cyclones

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: North America (continental and coastal regions)
• Temporal Scale: 1980-2014, with a focus on extreme events during this period

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 GCMs (27 models), CRCM6 driven by ERA5 reanalysis or three CMIP6 GCMs
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis, satellite observations, and model outputs from the CMIP6 archive

Main Results

• Regional differences in model biases for simulating local dynamical and thermodynamical conditions associated with intense systems
• Higher resolution reduces pressure anomaly errors over high track density regions or areas affected by explosive cyclones
• CRCM6 simulations exhibit smaller errors domain-wide, particularly north of 50°N and over oceans

Contributions

• Introduces a novel Eulerian approach for characterizing local temporal evolution of intense low-pressure systems
• Highlights the importance of accurately representing synoptic and regional surface conditions in climate models
• Provides a framework for evaluating model performance and informing improved dynamical downscaling and climate projections

Funding

• This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) through grants RGPIN-2019-04724 and RGPAS-2018-52351.

Citation

@article{Meyer2026Eulerian,
  author = {Meyer, Victorien De and Luca, Alejandro Di and Gachon, Philippe},
  title = {An Eulerian evaluation of intense low-pressure systems over North America in CMIP6 and a regional climate model},
  journal = {Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-026-08260-7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08260-7}
}