Adibi et al. (2026) Intensity-dependent changes in ENSO frequency and lifecycle characteristics under future climate change

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Climate Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-24
• Authors: Parya Adibi, Reza Rezaian, Omid Alizadeh, Tobias Sauter
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-026-08288-9

Research Groups

• Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Consortium
• University of [Insert University Name] Climate Research Group

Short Summary

This study investigates the projected changes in the frequency and lifecycle characteristics of El Niño and La Niña events under future warming scenarios using a multi-model ensemble of 13 CMIP6 models. The results show a robust shift toward higher intensity events, particularly under the SSP5−8.5 scenario.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of future warming on the frequency and lifecycle characteristics of El Niño and La Niña events across different intensity classes

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global climate system with focus on tropical Pacific Ocean
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1930–1999) and future period (2030–2099)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 13 CMIP6 models
• Data sources: Satellite, observation, reanalysis data

Main Results

• The total frequency of El Niño and La Niña events remains broadly stable across future scenarios.
• A robust shift toward higher intensity events is projected, particularly under SSP5−8.5.
• Very strong El Niño events more than double, very strong La Niña events nearly double, and weak events are substantially reduced under SSP5−8.5.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the impact of future warming on ENSO characteristics, which is essential for improving climate predictions and understanding global climate extremes.
• The findings have important implications for global climate policy and decision-making.

Funding

• This research was funded by the [Insert funding agency name] under grant number [Insert grant number].

Citation

@article{Adibi2026Intensitydependent,
  author = {Adibi, Parya and Rezaian, Reza and Alizadeh, Omid and Sauter, Tobias},
  title = {Intensity-dependent changes in ENSO frequency and lifecycle characteristics under future climate change},
  journal = {Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-026-08288-9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08288-9}
}