Ferguglia et al. (2026) A historical and future view of elevation-dependent precipitation change in CMIP6 models

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Climate Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-01
• Authors: Olivia Ferguglia, Enrico Arnone, Elisa Palazzi
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-026-08292-z

Research Groups

• Institute of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University of Beijing
• Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California
• Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences, Grenoble Alpes University
• School of Geography, University of Edinburgh
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study assesses the ability of current-generation global climate models to capture elevation-dependent precipitation change (EDPC) in five mountain regions. The results show significant inter-model variability and region-specific EDPC patterns.

Objective

• Investigate the representation of EDPC in current-generation global climate models across different mountain regions.
• Evaluate the ability of these models to provide projections of future EDPC evolution.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on five mountain regions: Tibetan Plateau, US Rockies, Greater Alpine Region, northern Andes, and southern Andes.
• Temporal Scale: Historical (1951–2020) and future (2015–2099) periods.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 28 CMIP6 models.
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis as a reference dataset.

Main Results

• Inter-model variability in EDPC representation, with distinct cluster compositions differing across regions and precipitation indices.
• Region-specific EDPC patterns emerge during the historical period, with some clusters closely reproducing the ERA5 profile.
• Projections reveal region- and cluster-dependent EDPC signals, precluding a robust characterisation of future EDPC.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the representation of EDPC in current-generation global climate models and its implications for climate projections.
• The clustering approach used in this study offers a valuable tool for assessing EDPC in climate model projections.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42175051)
• European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No. 101002855)
• National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grant No. AGS-2019101
• UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under Grant No. NE/R016429/1

Citation

@article{Ferguglia2026historical,
  author = {Ferguglia, Olivia and Arnone, Enrico and Palazzi, Elisa},
  title = {A historical and future view of elevation-dependent precipitation change in CMIP6 models},
  journal = {Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-026-08292-z},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08292-z}
}