Napoli et al. (2026) Future elevation-dependent changes in meteorological variables across the european alps and their possible links to surface temperature: insights from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble

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Identification

• Journal: Climate Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-28
• Authors: Anna Napoli, Michael Matiu, Sven Kotlarski, Dino Zardi, Alberto Bellin, Bruno Majone
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-026-08305-x

Research Groups

• Institute of Atmospheric Science, University of Bern
• Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich

Short Summary

This study investigates elevation-dependent patterns of change in 18 climate variables across the European Alpine region using a large EURO-CORDEX ensemble, focusing on winter and spring seasons. Strong elevation-dependent patterns are found for minimum temperature, diurnal temperature range, and specific humidity.

Objective

• Investigate elevation-dependent changes in climate variables across the European Alpine region.
• Identify driving mechanisms behind these changes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (European Alpine region)
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1981–2010) and future projections (2071–2100, RCP8.5)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: EURO-CORDEX ensemble
• Data sources: Climate model simulations

Main Results

• Strong elevation-dependent patterns for minimum temperature, diurnal temperature range, and specific humidity.
• Significant correlations between changes of surface temperature and other climate variables (diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature, specific humidity, downward longwave radiation, and shortwave radiation balance).
• Relationships exhibit clear elevation dependence.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of elevation-dependent patterns in the European Alpine region using a large ensemble of climate model simulations.
• Highlights the importance of adopting an ensemble-based approach when developing climate scenarios for future adaptation plans.

Funding

• Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)
• European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement No. [insert grant number])

Citation

@article{Napoli2026Future,
  author = {Napoli, Anna and Matiu, Michael and Kotlarski, Sven and Zardi, Dino and Bellin, Alberto and Majone, Bruno},
  title = {Future elevation-dependent changes in meteorological variables across the european alps and their possible links to surface temperature: insights from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble},
  journal = {Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-026-08305-x},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08305-x}
}