Xu et al. (2026) Dependence of subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction on atmospheric and land initial conditions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

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Identification

• Journal: Climate Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-12
• Authors: Dongze Xu, Zhaoxia Pu, Shixuan Zhang, Jeffrey Anderson, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-026-08320-y

Research Groups

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of atmospheric and land initial conditions on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) precipitation predictions using coupled atmosphere-land simulations in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The results show that reanalysis-based initial conditions improve S2S precipitation simulations.

Objective

• Investigate the impacts of atmospheric and land initial conditions on MJO and S2S precipitation predictions

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on the Maritime Continent
• Temporal Scale: Subseasonal to seasonal (days 1-60)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)
• Data sources: Reanalysis data from ERA5 and surface observations

Main Results

• Improved S2S precipitation simulations using reanalysis-based atmospheric and land initial conditions compared to long-term spin-up equilibrium state
• Impacts of initial conditions on precipitation simulation persist for approximately 40 days in the MJO region and 50 days globally
• Strong association between outgoing longwave radiation in the MJO region and surface latent heat flux at the global scale

Contributions

• Provides crucial insights into the importance of land initial conditions for S2S precipitation prediction
• Highlights the role of land-atmosphere coupling over the Maritime Continent in modulating boundary-layer moistening and MJO-related convection

Funding

• Supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant AGS-1824446
• Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Citation

@article{Xu2026Dependence,
  author = {Xu, Dongze and Pu, Zhaoxia and Zhang, Shixuan and Anderson, Jeffrey and Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby},
  title = {Dependence of subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction on atmospheric and land initial conditions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model},
  journal = {Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-026-08320-y},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08320-y}
}