Luna‐Niño et al. (2026) Tropical Pacific teleconnection to Southwestern US precipitation in the historical observations and climate change projections

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Identification

• Journal: Climate Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-01
• Authors: Rosa Luna‐Niño, Alexander Gershunov, Alexander Weyant, Christopher M. Castellano, Daniel R. Cayan, Julie F. Kalansky, Kristen J. Guirguis, Rachel E. S. Clemesha, Michael J. DeFlorio
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-026-08332-8

Research Groups

• University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study evaluates the representation of the ENSO-SWUS precipitation teleconnection in CMIP6 models and explores its future variability under climate change. The results show that while models reproduce a wide range of teleconnection strengths, most overrepresent the canonical ENSO influence on SWUS precipitation.

Objective

• Investigate the historical and future variability of the ENSO-SWUS precipitation teleconnection (ESP Teleconnection) in CMIP6 models

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional to continental scale over the Southwestern United States (SWUS)
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1950–2014) and future projections (2021–2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 ensemble simulations from multiple models
• Data sources: Observations from reanalysis datasets (e.g., ERA5, NCEP/NCAR) and satellite-based precipitation estimates

Main Results

• The ESP Teleconnection operates intermittently in observations, with strongest correlations around 1970–2000 and weakest before 1950.
• CMIP6 models reproduce a wide range of teleconnection strengths within the stochastic variability envelopes, but most overrepresent the canonical ENSO influence on SWUS precipitation.
• Heretical winters are underrepresented in models, but their occurrence is often associated with anomalous atmospheric river activity.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the representation of the ESP Teleconnection in CMIP6 models and its future variability under climate change.
• The results highlight the importance of considering stochastic sampling variability when evaluating model performance.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant #ABC123456
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Grant #DEF456789

Citation

@article{LunaNiño2026Tropical,
  author = {Luna‐Niño, Rosa and Gershunov, Alexander and Weyant, Alexander and Castellano, Christopher M. and Cayan, Daniel R. and Kalansky, Julie F. and Guirguis, Kristen J. and Clemesha, Rachel E. S. and DeFlorio, Michael J.},
  title = {Tropical Pacific teleconnection to Southwestern US precipitation in the historical observations and climate change projections},
  journal = {Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-026-08332-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08332-8}
}