Nguyen-Thanh et al. (2026) Relative skills of SPEAR and CFSv2 in foretelling warm-season precipitation anomalies over the conterminous United States and potential sources of errors

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Identification

• Journal: Climate Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-28
• Authors: Hue Nguyen-Thanh, Yu Zhang, Aydin Bakhtar, Feiyu Lu, Nelun Fernando
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-026-08357-z

Research Groups

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
• National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

Short Summary

This study evaluates the skill of two climate forecasting systems in predicting spring and summer precipitation anomalies over the contiguous United States, highlighting common limitations and areas for improvement.

Objective

• Investigate the performance of NOAA's SPEAR and NCEP's CFSv2 in forecasting seasonal-mean precipitation and wet extremes during 1991–2022

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Contiguous United States (CONUS)
• Temporal Scale: Spring (March to May) and summer (June to August)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: NOAA's SPEAR, NCEP's CFSv2
• Data sources: Anomaly correlation coefficient, percentage bias, bootstrap significance testing, quantile-based categorical metrics

Main Results

• Both models exhibit modest skill in spring precipitation forecasting, with regionally coherent advantages for SPEAR over CFSv2
• Summer skill is weaker in both models, especially for upper-tail seasonal precipitation anomalies
• Coupled SVD results show that both models reproduce an ENSO-like leading coupled mode

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the skill and limitations of two widely used climate forecasting systems in predicting spring and summer precipitation anomalies over CONUS
• The findings highlight the need for improved representation of SST-forced teleconnections, regional atmospheric variability, and additional climate drivers beyond ENSO to improve seasonal rainfall forecasts

Funding

• NOAA's Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) project
• NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) development and maintenance funded by the US National Weather Service

Citation

@article{NguyenThanh2026Relative,
  author = {Nguyen-Thanh, Hue and Zhang, Yu and Bakhtar, Aydin and Lu, Feiyu and Fernando, Nelun},
  title = {Relative skills of SPEAR and CFSv2 in foretelling warm-season precipitation anomalies over the conterminous United States and potential sources of errors},
  journal = {Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-026-08357-z},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08357-z}
}