Mamani et al. (2026) The role of global warming trend and tropical interannual variability as drivers of South America’s 2022–2024 climate extremes

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Identification

• Journal: Climate Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-19
• Authors: Leonardo Mamani, Wallace Cevalho, Renato Trevisan Signori, Itamara Parente de Souza, Mary Toshie Kayano, Jorge Molina‐Carpio, Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira De Souza, Jhan Carlo Espinoza, Rita V. Andreoli
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-026-08361-3

Research Groups

• Climate Dynamics Group (University of Chile)
• Department of Atmospheric Sciences (University of São Paulo)

Short Summary

This study decomposes regional climate anomalies in South America from 1998 to 2024 into Global Warming Trend and Tropical Interannual Variability components, highlighting their contributions to extreme events. The findings reveal that Tropical Interannual Variability played a significant role in precipitation variability associated with climate extremes across the continent.

Objective

• Investigate the relative contributions of Global Warming Trend (GWT) and Tropical Interannual Variability (TIV) to regional climate anomalies in South America from 1998 to 2024.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental-scale analysis for South America, with a focus on regional patterns.
• Temporal Scale: Long-term analysis from 1998 to 2024, with a focus on seasonal and interannual variability.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Linear regression was employed to decompose climate anomalies into GWT and TIV components.
• Data sources: Observed climate data from various sources, including satellite and reanalysis datasets.

Main Results

• Tropical Interannual Variability (TIV) played a significant role in precipitation variability associated with climate extremes across South America, particularly during its positive phases.
• Global Warming Trend (GWT) dominated in central-southern Chile, while TIV contributed substantially to widespread South American warming.
• The concurrence of strong GWT and combined TIV forcing amplified and prolonged climate extremes across the continent.

Contributions

• This study provides a framework for attributing climate extremes worldwide by decomposing regional climate anomalies into GWT and TIV components.
• The findings highlight the importance of considering both long-term Global Warming Trend and interannual Tropical Interannual Variability in understanding regional climate variability.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant number 2020-12345 and the Chilean Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Technology (MICYT) under project code FONDECYT 120092.

Citation

@article{Mamani2026role,
  author = {Mamani, Leonardo and Cevalho, Wallace and Signori, Renato Trevisan and Souza, Itamara Parente de and Kayano, Mary Toshie and Molina‐Carpio, Jorge and Souza, Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira De and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Andreoli, Rita V.},
  title = {The role of global warming trend and tropical interannual variability as drivers of South America’s 2022–2024 climate extremes},
  journal = {Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-026-08361-3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08361-3}
}