Raji et al. (2026) Dynamic and thermodynamic drivers of regional drought changes in Africa under different global warming levels

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Identification

• Journal: Climate Dynamics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-26
• Authors: Ibraheem Ayomide Raji, Akintomide A. Akinsanola
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-026-08439-y

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study assesses projected changes in drought characteristics, their physical drivers, and socioeconomic implications across Africa under different global warming levels and emission scenarios using CMIP6 models. It finds a robust increase in drought frequency and duration in the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, and Madagascar, leading to substantial socioeconomic risks that could be largely mitigated by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.

Objective

• To provide a comprehensive assessment of projected changes in drought characteristics, their physical drivers, and socioeconomic implications under different global warming levels (GWLs) and emission scenarios across Africa.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Mediterranean, Southern Africa, Madagascar, Central Africa).
• Temporal Scale: Future projections under different Global Warming Levels (GWLs) and emission scenarios; analysis of Time of Emergence (ToE).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 31 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Drought events identified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Moisture-budget analysis.
• Data sources: CMIP6 model outputs.

Main Results

• A robust increase in drought frequency and duration is projected across the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, and Madagascar across all GWLs and scenarios.
• Central Africa shows a projected decrease in drought frequency and duration.
• Drought intensity generally increases, but these changes are mostly not robust due to high inter-model disagreement.
• Model uncertainty is identified as the dominant source of projection uncertainty, accounting for over 60% of the total variance.
• The Time of Emergence (ToE) for changes in drought frequency and intensity occurs earlier than that for drought duration.
• Moisture-budget analysis reveals distinct regional mechanisms: drought intensification is linked to weakened vertical thermodynamic contributions over the Mediterranean, reduced evaporation over Southern Africa, and a combination of reduced evaporation and vertical dynamic contributions over Madagascar.
• Socioeconomic risks are substantial: more than 200 million people and USD 30 billion in GDP are projected to be exposed to drought across the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, and Madagascar at 3 °C GWL.
• Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C could avoid approximately 70% of these projected socioeconomic impacts.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, multi-model assessment of future drought changes, physical drivers, and socioeconomic impacts across key African regions under various warming levels and emission scenarios.
• Identifies robust regional patterns of drought frequency and duration changes, alongside areas of high inter-model disagreement for intensity.
• Quantifies the dominant role of model uncertainty in drought projections.
• Assesses the Time of Emergence for different drought metrics.
• Elucidates regional-specific physical mechanisms driving drought intensification through moisture-budget analysis.
• Quantifies the significant socioeconomic risks associated with future droughts and highlights the substantial benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.

Funding

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Raji2026Dynamic,
  author = {Raji, Ibraheem Ayomide and Akinsanola, Akintomide A.},
  title = {Dynamic and thermodynamic drivers of regional drought changes in Africa under different global warming levels},
  journal = {Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-026-08439-y},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08439-y}
}