Chen et al. (2026) Extreme precipitation variations and key drivers in the Upper-Middle Yellow River based on water resource zoning

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Chaobing Chen, Shanfeng HE, Lanlan Qiu, Shaohong Wu, Zheng Li, Qinmian Bai
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-025-05965-3

Research Groups

• School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, Shandong Province, China
• Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security, Yunnan University, Kunming, Yunnan Province, China
• Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• College of Tourism, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan Province, China

Short Summary

This study analyzed spatiotemporal variations and key drivers of extreme precipitation in the Upper-Middle Yellow River (UMYR) from 1961 to 2020, revealing a dual-phase intensification after 1990 with a northwest-southeast gradient, primarily driven by the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Objective

• To investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and climate drivers of extreme precipitation in the Upper-Middle Yellow River (UMYR) during 1961–2020, providing a scientific basis for water resource management and disaster prevention under intensified climate variability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Upper-Middle Yellow River (UMYR) basin, categorized into seven secondary water resource zones, utilizing data from 59 meteorological stations.
• Temporal Scale: 1961–2020, with detailed analyses for sub-periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) and decadal intervals.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Sen’s slope estimator, Mann-Kendall nonparametric test (for trend and mutation detection), and Cross-wavelet transform (for identifying driving factors). Nine ETCCDI extreme precipitation indices were selected based on frequency, intensity, and persistence.
• Data sources: Daily precipitation data from 59 meteorological stations obtained from the China Surface Climate Data Daily Dataset (V3.0) of the China Meteorological Administration. Influencing factors included Sunspot (SN), East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices.

Main Results

• From 1961 to 2020, most extreme precipitation indices in the UMYR showed increasing trends, with the exception of the maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5day), which exhibited a slight decreasing trend of -0.02 mm/year.
• Extreme precipitation remained relatively stable during 1961–1990 but intensified significantly after 1990, with multiple indices experiencing synchronized abrupt shifts in the mid-2010s (e.g., R20mm, PRCPTOT, and R95P in 2016; R10mm and R25mm in 2017).
• Extreme precipitation displayed a clear northwest-southeast increasing gradient across the UMYR, with the highest values concentrated in the section from Hekou Town to Huayuankou (Zones V, VI, and VII).
• The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were identified as key drivers, exhibiting stronger correlations and inter-energy relationships with extreme precipitation indices compared to Sunspots (SN) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Contributions

• Revealed a distinct dual-phase and nonlinear pattern of extreme precipitation evolution in the UMYR (stable 1961-1990, intensified post-1991), challenging previous findings of monotonic trends and indicating a hydroclimatic regime shift.
• Provided a refined understanding of extreme precipitation's fine-scale spatial heterogeneity at basin and sub-basin scales, highlighting a pronounced northwest-southeast gradient and specific intensification in the Sanmenxia-Huayuankou corridor, which is crucial for localized risk assessment.
• Identified the significant and regionally differentiated influences of ENSO and EASM, proposing a plausible joint modulation mechanism where ENSO provides background control, EASM supplies seasonal dynamic forcing, and terrain determines moisture conversion efficiency.
• Offers a scientific basis for enhancing flood early-warning systems, optimizing reservoir operations, and developing climate-adaptation strategies tailored to the UMYR's complex hydroclimatic system.

Funding

• Young Taishan Scholars Program of Shandong Province (grant no. tsqn202103065)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 42222302, 42371084)
• Natural Science Foundation Youth Program of Shandong Province (grant no. ZR2024QD290)

Citation

@article{Chen2026Extreme,
  author = {Chen, Chaobing and HE, Shanfeng and Qiu, Lanlan and Wu, Shaohong and Li, Zheng and Bai, Qinmian},
  title = {Extreme precipitation variations and key drivers in the Upper-Middle Yellow River based on water resource zoning},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-025-05965-3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05965-3}
}