Ghafur (2026) Climate change in Iraq: temperature trend analysis based on the NASA POWER project data

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-12
• Authors: Pshtiwan Gharib Ghafur
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-025-05974-2

Research Groups

• Department of Social Sciences, University of Sulaimani, Kirkuk Road, Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Short Summary

This study analyzed spatio-temporal temperature trends in Iraq from 1981 to 2024 using NASA POWER data, revealing significant increases in maximum, minimum, and average temperatures, alongside a decrease in frost days and an increase in hot days.

Objective

• To determine the spatio-temporal trends in the maximum, minimum, and average temperatures in Iraq to identify the effects of climate change.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Iraq (total area 438,320 km²), analyzed using 0.5° × 0.625° gridded data covering 32 locations.
• Temporal Scale: 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2024 (44 years), using daily and monthly temperature records, analyzed on seasonal and annual scales.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT test), Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method.
• Data sources: NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project data (version Daily 2.4.7), derived from the MERRA-2 assimilation model. Ground station data from the Iraqi Agrometeorological Center (MoA, 2025) was used for validation.

Main Results

• A very strong correlation (> 0.9) was found between NASA POWER data and ground station data.
• Significant increasing trends (95% confidence level, Zs > 1.96) were observed for maximum, minimum, and average temperatures on both seasonal and annual scales across most of Iraq.
• Iraq's annual maximum, minimum, and average temperatures increased by 1.48 °C (0.034 °C/year), 1.9 °C (0.043 °C/year), and 1.67 °C (0.038 °C/year), respectively, over the 1981-2024 period.
• The highest average temperature trend was 0.053 °C/year (approximately 2.34 °C total increase) in summer, while the lowest was 0.0314 °C/year (1.38 °C total increase) in spring.
• In 2024, Iraq's average annual temperature was rising 1.08 times faster than the average global temperature.
• Frost days (defined as ≤ 0 °C) decreased by 13.4 days (0.304 days/year), representing a 42.9% reduction.
• Hot days (defined as ≥ 44 °C) increased by 18.9 days (0.43 days/year), representing a 60% increase.
• Higher temperature increases were observed in the northern and northwestern mountainous areas, while the highest absolute temperatures were recorded in the south.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of temperature trends and climate change impacts in Iraq, extending to 2024, addressing limitations of previous studies that did not focus on recent years.
• Utilizes NASA POWER data to overcome data scarcity issues in Iraq, validating its reliability with ground station data.
• Offers empirical evidence and a scientific basis for policymakers to develop climate adaptation actions and policy-making initiatives in Iraq.

Funding

• The author declares no specific funding, grants, or other forms of support during the preparation of this manuscript.

Citation

@article{Ghafur2026Climate,
  author = {Ghafur, Pshtiwan Gharib},
  title = {Climate change in Iraq: temperature trend analysis based on the NASA POWER project data},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-025-05974-2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05974-2}
}