Wang et al. (2026) Analysis of the characteristics and propagation patterns of drought in Dongting Lake basin

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-16
• Authors: Han Wang, D. ZHANG, Yujie Peng
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-025-06012-x

Research Groups

• Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan, Hubei, China
• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

Short Summary

This study analyzed the characteristics and propagation patterns of meteorological to hydrological droughts in the Dongting Lake Basin using standardized indices and run theory. It found that hydrological drought response times in sub-basins range from 2 to 4 months, with propagation probabilities between 58.54% and 88.57%, and established a linear propagation model to quantify these relationships.

Objective

• To understand the characteristics of drought in the Dongting Lake Basin and the propagation patterns from meteorological drought to hydrological drought.
• To quantify the relationship between meteorological drought and hydrological drought characteristics to provide technical support for regional drought disaster response.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Dongting Lake Basin, China (111°14′ to 113°10′ E, 28°30′ to 30°23′ N), divided into five sub-basins: Lishui, Yuanjiang, Zishui, Xiangjiang, and the Lake area.
• Temporal Scale: 1961 to 2022 (62 years) for precipitation and runoff data, with monthly scale calculations for drought indices.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
  • Standardized Runoff Index (SRI)
  • Run theory (for drought event identification, fusion, and exclusion)
  • Pearson correlation coefficient (for determining drought response time)
  • Linear regression function (for meteorological-hydrological drought propagation model)
  • Gamma distribution (for SPI calculation)
  • Three-parameter P-III probability distribution (for SRI calculation)
• Data sources:
  • Daily precipitation data from the CHM_PRE dataset (National Tibetan Plateau Scientific Data Center).
  • Daily flow data from the Hydrological Bureau of the Yangtze River Commission for Xiangtan, Taojiang, Taoyuan, Shimen, and Chenglingji hydrological stations.

Main Results

• The drought response times of the Dongting Lake sub-basins to meteorological drought range from 2 to 4 months, with an overall response time of 4 months for the entire basin.
• The probability of meteorological drought propagating to hydrological drought in the sub-basins is estimated to be between 58.54% and 88.57%.
• The distribution of hydrological drought sensitivity is consistent with the distribution of meteorological drought propagation rates.
• Under a certain level of meteorological drought, the most likely corresponding event is a hydrological drought of the same level, followed by events one level higher or lower.
• Basins with higher meteorological drought severity triggering thresholds tend to experience shorter-lasting hydrological drought events.
• Drought duration propagation thresholds (D) for sub-basins range from 0.11 months (Dongting Lake basin) to 1.49 months (Yuanjiang basin).
• Drought severity propagation thresholds (S) for sub-basins range from -1.19 (Lake area) to 2.69 (Dongting Lake basin), where negative values indicate that any meteorological drought event will result in a hydrological drought severity exceeding 0.5.
• Reservoir operations and land cover types significantly influence drought propagation characteristics, with steeper slopes leading to shorter response times and higher reservoir capacities mitigating propagation rates.

Contributions

• Provides a specific and detailed analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics and their propagation patterns within the Dongting Lake Basin, addressing a regional research gap.
• Establishes a straightforward linear propagation model to quantify the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics (duration and severity), including critical thresholds.
• Offers valuable insights and technical support for the development of drought early warning systems and water resource management strategies in the Dongting Lake Basin.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Wang2026Analysis,
  author = {Wang, Han and ZHANG, D. and Peng, Yujie},
  title = {Analysis of the characteristics and propagation patterns of drought in Dongting Lake basin},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-025-06012-x},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-06012-x}
}