Fatma et al. (2026) Analysis of precipitation and temperature trends in the gomti river basin, India (1980–2023)

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-23
• Authors: Nida Fatma, Amina Jafr, Monowar Alam Khalid, Arpit Chouksey
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-026-06062-9

Research Groups

• Department of Environmental Science, Integral University, Lucknow, India
• Water Resources Department, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Dehradun, India

Short Summary

This study analyzed long-term precipitation and temperature trends in the Gomti River Basin, India (1980–2023), revealing a significant decrease in annual and monsoon rainfall and a slight, seasonally varied increase in mean annual temperature, with implications for water resources and agriculture.

Objective

• To examine long-term trends in precipitation and temperature at annual, seasonal, and monthly scales in the Gomti River Basin, India, from 1980 to 2023.
• To provide a refined district-level evaluation of rainfall trends to offer a more detailed spatial understanding of variability within the basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Gomti River Basin, India (area of 30,437 km²), encompassing 17 districts in Uttar Pradesh (Amethi, Ayodhya, Barabanki, Ghazipur, Hardoi, Jaunpur, Kheri, Lucknow, Pilibhit, Pratapgarh, Prayagraj, Raebareli, Shahjahanpur, Sitapur, Sultanpur, Unnao, and Varanasi).
• Temporal Scale: 1980–2023 (44 years), analyzed at annual, seasonal (Winter: January–February; Pre monsoon: March–May; Monsoon: June–September; Post monsoon: October–December), and monthly scales.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test, Sen's slope estimator, Lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient, Pearson correlation analysis.
• Data sources: India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded climate data.
  • Rainfall data: IMD gridded daily rainfall dataset (0.25° × 0.25° resolution; 1980–2023).
  • Temperature data: IMD gridded daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset (1.0° × 1.0° resolution; 1980–2023).
  • Data processing involved Python programming for extraction, spatial clipping, area-weighted mean for district-level averages, and bilinear interpolation for missing values.

Main Results

• Precipitation:
  • Annual precipitation showed a statistically significant decreasing trend of -2.52 mm/year.
  • Monsoon rainfall exhibited a statistically significant decreasing trend of -0.169 mm/year.
  • Monthly analysis revealed significant decreases in June (-0.091 mm/year) and July (-0.22 mm/year), and significant increases in October (0.132 mm/year) and November (0.014 mm/year), indicating a shift in seasonal rainfall patterns.
  • District-level annual rainfall showed significant declines in Ayodhya (-0.449 mm/year), Sitapur (-0.328 mm/year), and Unnao (-0.329 mm/year).
  • Pre-monsoon rainfall significantly increased in Amethi (0.022 mm/year), Pratapgarh (0.0135 mm/year), Prayagraj (0.014 mm/year), and Raebareli (0.011 mm/year).
  • Monsoon rainfall significantly decreased in Sitapur (-0.362 mm/year), Ayodhya (-0.419 mm/year), Lakhimpur Kheri (-0.221 mm/year), Pilibhit (-0.268 mm/year), Sultanpur (-0.209 mm/year), and Unnao (-0.291 mm/year).
  • Post-monsoon and winter precipitation showed no statistically significant trends.
• Temperature:
  • The annual mean temperature showed a marginally increasing trend of 0.008 °C/year (not statistically significant).
  • The monsoon season exhibited the most pronounced warming, with a significant increase of 0.014 °C/year.
  • Monthly analysis revealed significant warming in March (0.031 °C/year), August (0.013–0.021 °C/year), September (0.013–0.021 °C/year), October (0.018 °C/year), and February (0.027 °C/year).
  • The winter season displayed a weak, statistically insignificant cooling trend of -0.005 °C/year.
• Correlation: A strong positive correlation (r = 0.95) was found between annual and monsoon rainfall, while a moderate negative correlation (r = -0.65) existed between monsoon rainfall and temperature.

Contributions

• Extended the analysis period of precipitation and temperature trends in the Gomti River Basin to 1980–2023, providing an updated characterization of recent climatic variability.
• Offered a refined district-level evaluation of rainfall trends, revealing new spatial details and localized differences in seasonal rainfall patterns not fully explored in previous broader basin-wide analyses.
• Provided new evidence of spatially heterogeneous and season-specific changes in precipitation, which is crucial for developing targeted climate adaptation and water management strategies at finer administrative scales in the region.

Funding

• University Grants Commission (UGC), Government of India, under the Junior Research Fellowship scheme.

Citation

@article{Fatma2026Analysis,
  author = {Fatma, Nida and Jafr, Amina and Khalid, Monowar Alam and Chouksey, Arpit},
  title = {Analysis of precipitation and temperature trends in the gomti river basin, India (1980–2023)},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-026-06062-9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06062-9}
}