Arabacı et al. (2026) A modelling framework for simulating 50-year thermal variation under lake drying and urban expansion: insights from Ramsar lake Burdur, Türkiye

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-01
• Authors: Derya Arabacı, Çağdaş Kuşçu Şimşek, Murat Ataol, Alperen Furkan Eksilmez
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-026-06112-2

Research Groups

• Atça Vocational School, Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Land Registry and Cadastre Program, Adnan Menderes University, Aydın, Türkiye
• Department of Space Science and Technologies/Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Science, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Türkiye
• Department of Geography, Çankırı Karatekin University, Çankırı, Türkiye

Short Summary

This study developed an integrated modeling framework to simulate the long-term thermal variations around Lake Burdur, Türkiye, under lake drying and urban expansion scenarios. It found that the lake's cooling capacity will substantially weaken by 2075, significantly reducing the thermal resilience of nearby urban areas.

Objective

• To simulate the long-term spatiotemporal changes in the climate around Lake Burdur under lake drying and urban expansion.
• To evaluate the impact of the shrinking lake on urban areas and their thermal resilience.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Lake Burdur, Türkiye, and a 10 km surrounding buffer, analyzed at a 300 m × 300 m grid resolution.
• Temporal Scale: Analysis of historical data from 2000 to 2024, with future projections for 2050 and 2075.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) projections for hydrological balance (precipitation and temperature changes).
  • CA-ANN (Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network) for urban growth simulation.
  • BPNN (Backpropagation Neural Network) for local land surface temperature (LST) estimation.
  • STELLA 9.1 for lake volume modeling.
• Data sources:
  • SRTM DEM (30 m resolution).
  • Road network data.
  • Burdur Meteorological Station records (precipitation, evaporation).
  • Directorate General for State Hydraulic Works (DSİ) streamflow data.
  • Landsat 7–8 thermal imagery (2000, 2012, 2024).
  • Corine LULC (2000, 2012, 2024 updated from 2018).
  • IPCC AR6 Interactive Atlas (CMIP6 SSP2–4.5 projections).
  • Derived products: slope, aspect, emissivity, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), distance-to-lake, distance-to-forest layers.

Main Results

• The lake volume simulation achieved an accuracy of 96.91%.
• Urban expansion simulation showed a Kappa coefficient of 0.97 and a correlation of 89.60%.
• Land surface temperature (LST) estimation using BPNN yielded a correlation of 72.60%, SSIM of 79.09%, R² of 0.514, and an RMSE of 0.067 (for LST ratio), with spatial accuracy of 79% at 900 m.
• Lake Burdur's surface area is projected to shrink by approximately 9% by 2050 and 21% by 2075.
• Burdur's urban area is projected to expand from 2.71 × 10^7 m² (2709 ha) in 2024 to 3.02 × 10^7 m² (3024 ha) in 2050 and 3.30 × 10^7 m² (3303 ha) in 2075.
• The lake cooling distance (LCD) is projected to decline from approximately 2000 m in 2000 to below the model’s spatial resolution (300 m) by 2075.
• Lake cooling intensity (LCI), the temperature contrast between lakeside and inland areas, decreased from approximately 9 °C in 2000 to 1.5 °C in 2024, and is expected to approach 0.4 °C by 2075.
• Lake cooling efficiency (LCE) is projected to decline from 0.96 in 2000 to approximately 0.02 by 2075, indicating a 98% reduction in spatial cooling effectiveness.
• Approximately 5.04 × 10^6 m² (5.04 km²) of the urban area will no longer benefit from the lake’s cooling influence.

Contributions

• Developed an integrated machine learning simulation framework for long-term thermal response under coupled lake drying and urban expansion, addressing a gap in existing literature.
• Demonstrated an effective methodology for integrating hydrological, urban, and climatic models using remote-sensing-based simulations and synthetic satellite data.
• Provided quantitative thermal projections for a Ramsar-protected wetland (Lake Burdur), highlighting the progressive weakening of its microclimatic function due to climate change and anthropogenic pressures.
• Offers a transferable methodological tool for monitoring climate-driven hydrological and thermal changes in vulnerable lake systems globally.
• Emphasized the urgent need for adaptive strategies, including blue-green infrastructure and policy adjustments in agricultural water management, to mitigate heat stress and preserve regional microclimatic stability.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Citation

@article{Arabacı2026modelling,
  author = {Arabacı, Derya and Şimşek, Çağdaş Kuşçu and Ataol, Murat and Eksilmez, Alperen Furkan},
  title = {A modelling framework for simulating 50-year thermal variation under lake drying and urban expansion: insights from Ramsar lake Burdur, Türkiye},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-026-06112-2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06112-2}
}