Mehmood et al. (2026) Assessment of temporal and spatial shifts in climatic parameters and their impact on crop water requirement in the Lower Chenab Canal Command Area, Pakistan

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-10
• Authors: Ahtisham Mehmood, Muhammad Umer Masood, Ahmad Mujtaba, Ghulam Nabi, Abu Bakar Arshed
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-026-06217-8

Research Groups

• Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, UET, Lahore, Pakistan
• International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Lahore, Pakistan

Short Summary

This study assessed the temporal and spatial shifts in rainfall and temperature in Pakistan's Lower Chenab Canal Command Area from 1991-2020, revealing significant impacts on crop water requirements for major crops and emphasizing the need for climate-resilient agricultural planning.

Objective

• Assessment of temporal and spatial shifts in climatic parameters (precipitation & temperature).
• Impact of temporal shifts in climatic parameters (precipitation & temperature) on water requirement for the agriculture sector in the Lower Chenab Canal Command Area, Pakistan.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) Command Area, Pakistan, specifically LCC East, covering districts such as Faisalabad, Toba Tek Singh, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Sheikhupura, and Nankana Sahib. The Culturable Command Area (CCA) is approximately 1.21 million hectares.
• Temporal Scale: 30 years of data (1991–2020), segmented into three 10-year time windows: TW1 (1991–2000), TW2 (2001–2010), and TW3 (2011–2020).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CROPWAT 8.0 (for reference evapotranspiration, crop water requirement, irrigation scheduling), Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation (for spatial analysis in ArcGIS®).
• Data sources:
  • Climatic data (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours) from Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) for 1991-2020 (monthly scale) from six stations.
  • Cropping pattern data (wheat, rice, maize, sugarcane) from Crop Reporting Service (CRS), Agriculture Department of Punjab.
  • Reference evapotranspiration and crop-coefficient data from Hydromech Corporation, Lahore.
  • Crop data (rooting depth, crop coefficient, critical depletion, yield response factor, growth stages duration) from FAO Manual 56.
  • Soil conservation (S.C.) method outlined by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for soil data.

Main Results

• Temporal Shifts in Climatic Parameters:
  • Peak rainfall consistently shifted from August to July across most of the study area.
  • Peak maximum temperature shifted from June to May across the entire study area.
  • Highest minimum temperature shifted from July to August across the entire study area, with an overall rise observed from TW1 to TW3.
• Spatial Shifts in Climatic Parameters:
  • Maximum and minimum temperatures showed a noticeable spatial shift and increase from the west-south to the northeast from TW1 to TW3.
  • Rainfall exhibited variation in spatial distribution from south-west to north-east across time windows, but no consistent specific spatial shift was evident.
• Quantitative Climatic Values:
  • Maximum temperatures across districts varied between 34 °C and 36.72 °C.
  • Average monthly rainfall varied from 80 mm in Sahiwal to over 200 mm in Gujranwala and Lahore.
• Impact on Crop Water Requirements (CWR):
  • For maize, sugarcane, and rice, CWR generally increased in August (TW1 < TW2 < TW3) and decreased in July (TW1 > TW2 > TW3) in Lahore, Okara, and Sahiwal, reflecting shifts in rainfall and minimum temperature.
  • In June, CWR decreased (TW1 > TW2 > TW3), while in May, it increased (TW1 < TW2 < TW3), reflecting the shift in peak maximum temperature.
  • Gujranwala showed a unique CWR trend for rice, wheat, and sugarcane (TW1 > TW2 < TW3), and for maize (TW1 > TW2, TW3 > TW2).
  • Faisalabad showed nearly equal CWR for maize and sugarcane in August for TW2 and TW3.
  • Toba Tek Singh exhibited a decreasing CWR trend for maize in both July and August, deviating from other regions.

Contributions

• First study to comprehensively evaluate the effects of climate change on agricultural water demand across both spatial and temporal dimensions in Pakistan.
• Provides crucial insights for policymakers, water resource managers, and farmers regarding necessary adaptations and mitigation strategies for sustainable water management and agricultural practices.
• Offers practical recommendations, such as shifting sowing dates for rice (from May to June) and maize (from June to July), to optimize water utilization and reduce CWR.

Funding

• This research received no external funding.

Citation

@article{Mehmood2026Assessment,
  author = {Mehmood, Ahtisham and Masood, Muhammad Umer and Mujtaba, Ahmad and Nabi, Ghulam and Arshed, Abu Bakar},
  title = {Assessment of temporal and spatial shifts in climatic parameters and their impact on crop water requirement in the Lower Chenab Canal Command Area, Pakistan},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-026-06217-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06217-8}
}